Herbert avoided interceptions at an historic rate last season with three in 504 attempts (0.6 percent) -- the only 500-attempt QB in NFL history with a lower INT percentage was Aaron Rodgers in 2018 (0.3). But then Herbert threw four picks in the Chargers' wild-card loss. Such was life in 2024. Herbert was fifth in on-target percentage (77.0) yet just 18th in completion percentage (65.9), as his pass catchers had the fourth-highest drop rate (6.6 percent) and struggled to make contested catches. He finished QB11 in fantasy but had less than 15 fantasy points in nine games. Herbert improved his downfield throwing last year, and consequently his YPA (7.7, 11th) rebounded after consecutive sub-7.0 seasons. He threw deep often (12.3 percent, 10th) and completed 40.3 percent (8th), tying for the league lead in TDs on those throws, with his 9:2 TD:INT second to only Lamar Jackson's 8:0. 2024 second-round pick Ladd McConkey paid off in a big way, but Herbert had little else. Much is the same this year, unless the team gets a big rookie year out of second-round pick Tre Harris, who ran a disappointing 4.54 40 at the NFL Combine. He'll compete with 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston, who scored eight TDs last season but otherwise struggled (seven drops, tied for ninth most among WRs). The offense will run through the backfield anyway, led by free-agent Najee Harris and first-round pick Omarion Hampton. With little chance of big-time passing volume in Greg Roman's run-first offense, Herbert will be hard-pressed to break through to the Top 10 of fantasy QBs even if he plays well again.
