Despite already starting to perform, running back Chase Brown and tight end Trey McBride may not have seen their best days yet.
Unfortunately, we’ve seen a ton of star players go down with injuries during the NFL season. That means your fantasy team’s depth is extremely important, and so is your ability to improve your roster. With so many fantasy managers scrambling to replace their injured studs while also combatting bye-week absences, it’s the perfect time to send out some trade offers.
Each week during the season, Sleeper takes a data-driven approach to identify the best buy-low and sell-high candidates around the NFL while explaining why these players are intriguing options. So which players should you target and offload entering Week 6? Let’s take a look.
Buy-Low Targets
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Zack Moss looked like the Bengals' RB1 early in the season, but Brown's role has gradually increased, and he's making the most of his opportunities. This season, Brown actually has more rushing yards (230-211) and receiving yards (39-19) than Moss, plus the same number of touchdowns (3) despite receiving 16 fewer carries and three fewer targets.
Brown is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and posting the fourth-best rush EPA per snap in the NFL (10.7). So, if Brown is playing so well, how does he qualify as a “buy-low” candidate? Because it’s very likely that this is the lowest his value will be for the remainder of the season.
Moss tweaked his ankle this week, so Brown could see an increased workload next week when the Bengals face the Giants on Sunday night. Brown could have a big game on national TV, and if that happens, then the window to acquire him on the semi-cheap will slam shut.
TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
The tight end position is disgusting, so having a set-it-and-forget-it option like McBride is a luxury. He is currently the TE9 overall PPR points and TE6 in points per game (10.9), and the chief reason he’s a “buy-low” option is because he doesn’t yet have a receiving TD this season. That’s something you can use to your benefit in trade talks with McBride managers who may be frustrated that he hasn’t yet boomed.
Nevertheless, McBride has arguably the most secure role of any tight end in the league. He is averaging 7.5 targets per game, which is tied for the most among tight ends with Jake Ferguson. He has at least six targets in every game he’s played this season. He actually ranks first on the Cardinals in targets per game, beating out Marvin Harrison Jr. McBride is the TE1 in most rest-of-season rankings.
McBride and Brock Bowers are currently the safest tight ends given their roles. If the McBride owners in your leagues don’t realize how good they have it, see if you can take him off their hands.
Sell-High Targets
TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
One week after Pitts had zero catches against the Saints, he delivered his best game of the season in the Falcons' win over the Buccaneers on Thursday. Pitts turned eight targets into seven receptions for 88 yards, showcasing his athleticism and YAC ability.
If you believe that this was Pitts’ coming-out party and that he’ll continue to be involved going forward now that he and Kirk Cousins seem to be on the same page, by all means, hold onto him – especially considering the state of the TE position.
But if you want off the Pitts rollercoaster because his usage is so inconsistent, that’s totally understandable too, and this is a great time to sell. When a player has a great performance in a prime-time game, it typically helps their trade value since many of your league mates watched him thrive rather than just seeing the stats. The recency effect is real.
It’s worth noting that even with eight targets, Pitts’ target share was still below 15% in this game. Pitts hasn’t seen a 20% target share in any game this season. With 23 targets total, Pitts is currently the No. 4 option in this offense, as Cousins loves throwing to Drake London (44), Darnell Mooney (40) and Ray-Ray McCloud III (31). Pitts’ strong performance feels less like a breakout and more of a direct result of Cousins throwing 58 times for 509 yards against Tampa Bay's funnel defense. It can’t hurt to shop Pitts and gauge his trade value following his best game of the season.
RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
O.K., so this is admittedly less of a traditional “sell-high” and more of a “sell-this-early-round-RB-while-you-still-can.”
You used high draft capital on Etienne, but he has struggled mightily over the first five weeks of the season, and it’s officially time to hit the panic button and find another manager who still believes it will get better. On Sunday, Tank Bigsby received more carries (13-6) and more snaps (23-22) than Etienne. Bigsby also received both carries inside the 10-yard line. While Etienne ran more routes and was targeted seven times, it seems like Etienne is the third-down back while Bigsby is the team’s top rusher.
The worst part for Etienne owners is that Bigsby made the most of every touch, finishing the game with 129 total yards and two touchdowns. Bigsby looks explosive and had a 65-yard touchdown run, helping Jacksonville win its first game of the season.
On the season, Bigsby has outrushed Etienne (273-231 yards) and they have the same number of touchdowns (2) despite Bigsby receiving 19 fewer carries. Bigsby is averaging an absurd 8.0 yards per carry compared to 4.4 yards per carry for Etienne. Bigsby leads the NFL in avoided tackles (11) and yards after contact (105) in Week 5, and he has the best avoided-tackle rate (51%) and rush EPA per snap (16.9) among RBs with at least 30 carries, as Jacob Gibbs from CBS Sports noted.
With that kind of production, Bigsby’s role should only increase. Sell Etienne while you can and hope that someone in your league is willing to buy him based on name recognition, past production and the potential that he’ll still reach his ceiling. With bye weeks and injuries decimating the RB position, other managers’ desperation could be used to your benefit.
Hit the Trade Market
Trade values can change rapidly, so pounce on these opportunities while you can. Check back each week for our buy-low and sell-high recommendations, so you can continue to improve your roster throughout the season. For more fantasy tips, trade tools, and community discussions, be sure to play around on the Sleeper app.
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