From Jahmyr Gibbs carving the Bears' defense to Patrick Mahomes serving revenge against the Raiders, this holiday lineup is stacked. Just don't forget to bench those 'turkeys' who could spoil your playoff hopes!
What’s better than turkey and all the fixings on Thanksgiving? Watching NFL games and inching closer to securing fantasy football playoff berths over Thanksgiving, naturally.
Before your feast, we’re here with some lineup suggestions and guidance for each Thanksgiving matchup as well as the AFC West Black Friday showdown. Special slate, special edition of the newsletter. That’s how we roll.
Our breakdown here delivers three players per game over the four holiday matchups: one who will “feast” on the competition, one “best side” who will outperform projections and is a sensible play for your lineups, and one “turkey” who is primed to bust.
Let’s sharpen our carving knives and get going.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
FEAST: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs, who is the overall RB4 in PPR, has been the model of consistency for fantasy managers this season, posting 12+ PPR fantasy points in every game.
The second-year back, who is fourth in the NFL in rushing (886 yards), boasts a favorable matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed an average of 111 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs to opposing running backs.
Gibbs, who is also averaging 10.2 yards per reception, could find success in the air against a Chicago defense surrendering 4.3 receptions per game to running backs. With David Montgomery (shoulder) banged up, the Lions’ electric talent could potentially handle a bigger load on Turkey Day.
BEST SIDE: Lions WR Jameson Williams
Williams, who is the overall WR34 in PPR formats, is one of the league’s best deep threats, ranking 10th among all wideouts with an average of 20.8 yards per reception.
Sleeper’s projected WR40 (11 PPR points) is only being started in 52% of leagues (as of writing) and draws a matchup with a Bears defense that has allowed 10 opposing wideouts to post double-digit PPR production.
The speedy talent should thrive facing a Chicago defense that has surrendered the second-most passing plays of 40+ yards (eight) and the sixth-most plays of 20+ yards (37) this season. Jared Goff, who is one of the best deep passers this season, should look to push the ball down the field in this matchup. Williams will be the lead beneficiary.
TURKEY: Bears QB Caleb Williams
Chicago’s rookie, who is QB8 over the last two weeks, will be a tempting streaming option for fantasy managers in need in Week 13. Despite thriving since the club promoted Thomas Brown to offensive coordinator, this is not the week to trust Williams as a starting QB1.
He will face a Lions pass defense that has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (seven) to opposing QBs, which has resulted in Detroit surrendering the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position all season.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET
FEAST: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
After Dak Prescott was lost for the season, many fantasy managers believed it would spell doom for Lamb’s production. But in three full games with backup Cooper Rush at QB, Lamb has hauled in 24 of 34 targets for 181 yards. In the last two games, Lamb has posted 18.6 and 16.8 PPR points, respectively, as the Cowboys offense has shown signs of life.
Lamb, who is playing through injury, draws a favorable matchup against a Giants defense he torched in Week 4 to the tune of seven receptions for 98 yards and a score. New York, which has surrendered 801 passing yards and 10 TD passes to opposing QBs over the last three games, has allowed 14 opposing wideouts to post double-digit PPR production.
Due to the progress Rush has displayed with each start, fantasy managers should feel confident that Lamb will surpass Sleeper’s projection of 16.1 points, a number he has eclipsed in six of 10 games.
BEST SIDE: Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle
Dowdle, who is the clear lead back in the Dallas offense, enters Thanksgiving fresh off his highest volume of the season (19 carries, three catches) in the win over the Commanders.
Owning 46% of the Cowboys’ overall carries on the season, Dowdle is primed to exceed Sleeper’s RB32 (10.5 PPR points) projection for the fifth time in his last seven games.
Started in just 37% of Sleeper leagues, Dowdle faces a Giants defense that has struggled immensely containing opposing RBs. Over its last five games, New York has allowed 806 rushing yards (161.2 per game), 190 receiving yards (38 per game) and six TDs to RBs.
TURKEY: Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert
Tolbert ranks third on the Cowboys in targets (57), receptions (37) and receiving yards (410), but has struggled to produce of late.
After posting over 13 points (PPR) in each game from Weeks 2-5, Tolbert has failed to top 22 receiving yards in Weeks 8-12. Despite Tolbert facing a weak Giants secondary – and catching a pair of TDs from Rush over the last four games – fantasy managers should look elsewhere.
Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
FEAST: Packers RB Josh Jacobs
Jacobs has been sensational in his first season in Green Bay, ranking third in the NFL in rushing yards (944) and averaging 22.1 PPR points per game since Week 7.
The overall RB9 in PPR has had a nose for the end zone, scoring six TDs over his last four games. On Thanksgiving night, Jacobs has the potential to add to that total against a Miami defense that has allowed 13 total touchdowns to opposing RBs on the year.
BEST SIDE: Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith
No one in the fantasy community envisioned that Smith would be the overall TE5 in PPR heading into Week 13. Smith, who has posted over 23 PPR fantasy points in consecutive games, has developed superb chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa.
Smith will be facing a stingy Packers defense that has only surrendered four TDs to opposing TEs this season. Even so, he remains a strong volume play due to owning a 18.2% target share in Miami’s offense and is primed to outperform Sleeper’s projection of 11.8 fantasy points – a number he has eclipsed in five games this season.
TURKEY: Packers WR Jayden Reed
Through 12 weeks, Reed is just outside WR1 territory, ranking as the overall WR13 in PPR. Despite averaging 13.5 fantasy points on the year, Green Bay’s electric wideout has burned fantasy managers as of late. Since Week 7, Reed is the overall WR55, averaging just 8.4 points over that span.
He now draws a tough matchup against a Miami defense that has surrendered the fifth-fewest passing yards (2,328) and the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns (11). While it may be impossible to sit Reed, managers may need to temper expectations.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Friday, 3 p.m. ET
FEAST: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
All of the talk that the three-time Super Bowl MVP was not a fantasy QB1 can finally be put to bed. Mahomes, who was the overall QB22 after Week 6, has caught fire over the last month, throwing three TD passes in three of his last four games.
Since Week 7, Mahomes has been the QB5, averaging 20.2 points per game. That has catapulted him up to the overall QB9.
He will now face a division rival that mocked him on social media over the summer. The Chiefs star, who vowed the slight would be settled on the field, threw for 262 yards and two TDs in the first meeting with Las Vegas back in Week 8. Poking the bear likely was not a smart move. In his career, Mahomes is 11-2 against the Raiders, possessing an astounding 32:5 TD-to-INT ratio.
On Black Friday, he’ll face a struggling Raiders defense that has allowed 10 passing TDs over the last three games. Fire up the best QB in the NFL alongside those Thanksgiving leftovers.
BEST SIDE: Chiefs TE Noah Gray
There is a Kansas City player who is the overall TE3 over the last two weeks; shockingly, it's not Travis Kelce.
Gray quietly ranks third on Kansas City in targets (30), receptions (27) and receiving yards (315). He’s tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (four), all of which have come in the last two weeks.
In an extremely favorable matchup, Gray’s high ceiling has him poised to crush Sleeper’s TE24 (7 PPR points) projection. The Raiders, who have allowed an average of 5.7 receptions and 61.6 yards per game to opposing TEs, have surrendered six TDs to the position over the last four games.
TURKEY: Raiders RB Ameer Abdullah
If Zamir White (quadriceps) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) are both forced to sit for the second straight game, many fantasy owners will turn to the Raiders’ de facto starter and popular waiver claim.
In Week 12 against Denver, Abdullah posted a solid 17.5 PPR points, doing most of his damage in the passing game; however, with potential playoff berths on the line, now is not the time for fantasy managers to roll the dice.
The Chiefs have surrendered the third-fewest rushing yards (938) all season, and no opposing running back has topped 58 yards on the ground against them. Game script could help Abdullah if the Raiders are forced to throw, but the 31-year-old is far from a safe play.
