It's Week 4, and we have some counterintuitive takes about who should be in your starting lineup and who shouldn't. Here's a tip: sit Tyreek Hill.
Setting lineups without the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Joe Mixon and Kenneth Walker III being available is hard enough. Now try tacking on having to cope with healthy and normally reliable options suddenly failing to produce.
In Week 3, heavily-started options like running backs Tony Pollard (5.9 PPR points), Josh Jacobs (5.8), James Conner (3.5) and Rhamondre Stevenson (0.3); wide receivers Tyreek Hill (7), Zay Flowers (5.3), Mike Evans (3.7), Calvin Ridley (1.9) and Jameson Williams (1.2); and tight ends Sam LaPorta (5.6), Trey McBride (5.5) and Mark Andrews (0) posted alarmingly disappointing PPR production. Couple that futility with the extensive list of injured stars, and you’d understand why some fantasy football managers may be in an utter state of panic.
From a start/sit perspective, trying to identify the players that will either surpass their projections or underperform is becoming more difficult for managers to predict, but we’re here to do our best to help you navigate the suddenly volatile landscape. Remember, for our weekly “starts,” we’re targeting players who are being started in 70% or less of Sleeper leagues at time of writing.
Think those kinds of players can’t possibly win you a weekly matchup? Let’s introduce you to Jauan Jennings (46.5 PPR points), Chuba Hubbard (27.9), Zach Charbonnet (25.7), Andy Dalton (24.6), Sam Darnold (23.2), Rome Odunze (23.4), Jakobi Meyers (21.2) and Darnell Mooney (14.6), just to name a few under-the-radar fantasy studs from Week 3.
With those numbers as evidence that using bench players or making wise waiver moves is vital, let’s jump into Week 4 starts/sits:
STARTS
WR Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
vs. LA Rams; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The ninth pick in last April’s NFL Draft owns a snap percentage over 90% through three games, and in Week 3, he turned that heavy usage into six receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown against the Colts – good for an overall WR7 showing in PPR (23.4 points)
Odunze, who has carved out a bigger role in his rookie campaign due to Keenan Allen’s heel injury, draws a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that has already allowed 33 receptions for 541 yards (16.4 yards per reception) and six TDs to opposing wide receivers.
Odunze is only being started in 39% of Sleeper leagues but can exploit the Rams’ secondary to exceed his WR32 projection (11.8 points).
TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
at Tampa Bay; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Quick, who is the overall TE1 in PPR? Here’s a hint: it isn’t LaPorta, McBride or Travis Kelce.
Instead, it’s Philadelphia’s pass-catching TE, who has stepped up following the injury to A.J. Brown by posting a position-best 40.9 PPR points. The seventh-year pro owns the second-highest target share in the Eagles’ offense (21.3%), thanks in large part to his 10-catch, 170-yard Week 3 explosion.
Goedert, who projects as Sleeper’s TE10 (8.9 PPR points) in Week 4, could see that heavy target volume continue if WR DeVonta Smith is forced to sit after suffering a concussion against the Saints. Started in just 58% of Sleeper leagues, Goedert belongs in your lineup in Week 4.
QB Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers
vs. Cincinnati; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dalton showed he can still bring it in Week 3, shredding the Raiders for 319 yards and three TDs. In Week 4, Sleeper’s projected QB19 (15.1 points) draws a favorable home matchup against a Bengals defense that was just torched by Jayden Daniels and the Commanders on the national stage and will be on short rest.
Always pay attention to any “revenge game” angles when making lineup decisions. The “Red Rifle,” who is being started in only 4% of Sleeper leagues, will be motivated to send his former club to a fourth consecutive loss while continuing to make the most of his opportunity to start over the ineffective Bryce Young.
QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
at Green Bay; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Darnold is arguably the biggest surprise in fantasy through three weeks, leading the NFL in touchdown passes (eight), while sitting third in passer rating (117.3) and fifth in yards per pass (8.4) among QBs who have started all three weeks. Fantasy football’s overall QB4 (59.8 points) is improbably piloting an undefeated Vikings team that has scored the third-most points (85) in the NFL.
Darnold will face a Packers pass defense in a matchup that, on paper, does not appear favorable. But the much-maligned veteran, who is only being started in 19% of Sleeper leagues, has proven matchup-proof, throwing for six touchdowns in back-to-back wins over San Francisco and Houston. If you are facing injuries to Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love or Justin Herbert or are saddled with underperforming stars like Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson or Anthony Richardson, then Darnold is the QB for you in Week 4.
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
vs. Cincinnati; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Hubbard, started in just 29% of Sleeper leagues, is being ignored by fantasy managers, and that needs to change. Sleeper’s projected RB27 (10.4 PPR points) will face a Bengals team yielding an average of 107 yards (4.1 yards per rush) on the ground per game to opposing RBs.
Fantasy managers can bank on a second consecutive game of strong production from the fourth-year back, who is fresh off an impressive all-around performance against Las Vegas – 114 rushing yards coupled with five receptions for 55 yards and a score.
The overall RB18 (40.9 PPR points) is a trustworthy RB2 as long as Dalton is under center for the Panthers.
SITS
WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
vs. Tennessee; Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Hard decisions have to be made if you want to become a winning fantasy manager. Since losing Tagovailoa, Hill has gone from an elite WR1 to an ordinary WR4. The electric wideout has posted fewer than seven PPR points in consecutive games since losing his starting QB.
Sleeper’s projected RB20 (13.1 PPR points) has simply become too risky to bank on due to unreliable QB play for the Dolphins, who will turn to either Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley in Week 4. More than that, despite the team’s 0-3 record, the Titans defense has actually held opposing QBs to the second-fewest passing yards (471), the second-lowest completion percentage (57.7%) and the fourth-fewest yards per completion (6.0).
As painful as it may be, put Hill on the bench – or at the very least significantly temper your expectations – until Miami finds a solution under center.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
at Houston; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Through three weeks, it has become crystal clear that Lawrence is no longer a QB1 in fantasy football. After failing to throw for more than 220 yards in any game this season, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick shockingly ranks as QB28.
In Week 4, Lawrence draws a difficult matchup against a Texans defense that has held opposing QBs to an average of 189 passing yards per game. In six career games against his AFC South rival, the struggling Lawrence owns a dismal 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Lawrence, who is 0-8 in his last eight starts, will struggle to eclipse his Sleeper projection of 15.7 PPR points.
RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs. Eagles; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Managers pegged White as a high-end RB2 in drafts this summer, but thus far they have not found the ROI worthy of the high capital. Just how poor is that ROI? Despite receiving fewer carries, 25 to White’s 31, unheralded rookie Bucky Irving owns a 154-66 edge in rushing yards in the Tampa Bay backfield.
Coupled with potentially losing even more snaps to Irving in Week 4, White will face an Eagles defense that has not allowed any touchdowns to opposing running backs on the ground or in the air. Get White on your bench.
QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
vs. Pittsburgh; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Despite being widely drafted as a top-six QB1 this summer, Richardson has not lived up to lofty expectations. After an exciting Week 1 outing against Houston, the second-year QB has burned fantasy managers, posting fewer than 13 fantasy points in consecutive games.
Richardson’s accuracy issues (last in completion percentage among regular starters at 49.3%) have resulted in a league-worst six interceptions. In Week 4, he cannot be trusted as a starting option, especially against a tough Steelers defense that has held opposing QBs to only 188.3 passing yards per game and two scores. The Colts’ dual-threat will struggle to surpass Sleeper’s QB9 projection (18.2 points), and owners should instead look for alternatives.
RB J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
vs. Kansas City; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Through three games, Dobbins has been a pleasant surprise, far exceeding preseason expectations by sitting as the overall RB12 (51.4 points) in PPR. Despite rushing for the third-most yards (310) in the NFL, though, Dobbins belongs on the bench this week.
In Week 4, the Chargers face a Chiefs run defense that has allowed just 59 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs and held Derrick Henry (3.5 yards per carry), Zack Moss (2.8) and Bijan Robinson (1.9) in check to start the year. It’s a brutal matchup – and that’s before considering the injuries to Herbert and key offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt.
Despite Dobbins’ hot start, fantasy owners need to avoid starting Sleeper’s projected RB30 (9.9 PPR points), even at the flex position.
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