It’s NFL Week 15, and that means it’s playoff time for many of you. Every decision at this point is crucial for your fantasy team's success. We're here to help.
It feels like just yesterday that we were sharing Week 1 Start/Sit advice, faced with a world of possibility. But as we know, life goes by in a blink of an eye and fantasy football is not exempt. It’s already Week 15, and that means it’s playoff time.
We hope you’re still alive and playing for your coveted fantasy league trophy (or at the very worst in a losers’ bracket avoiding a humiliating punishment). With the majority of fantasy owners — sans those who received first-round byes or those for whom the playoffs begin in Week 16 — facing must-win matchups this week, your postseason fate will be decided by two main factors: player production and optimal lineup decisions.
Our suggested starts and sits for the all-important week are designed to help you be cognizant of what potentially lies ahead prior to submitting your final lineup. As we indicate on a weekly basis, all “start” suggestions are pooled from players who are being started in 70% or less of Sleeper leagues at time of writing.
Our Week 15 list kicks off with a veteran wideout, who, after missing two months of the season, has re-emerged and ranks as the overall WR10 in PPR since Week 12.
STARTS
WR Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
vs. Dallas; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Thielen is on an absolute tear since returning from his hamstring injury, averaging 17.3 PPR points per game over his last three games.
In Week 15, he’ll face a Cowboys defense that is surrendering an average of 155.1 receiving yards per game and 12 TDs to opposing wide receivers. Despite getting healthier in the secondary, Dallas’s D was torched by Ja’Marr Chase in a deflating defeat and now faces a quick turnaround.
Thielen, who owns a 21.7% target share since coming back, has become Bryce Young’s top target in the passing game. Likely facing a positive game script, the 11-year veteran wideout is poised to surpass Sleeper’s projection of 12.4 fantasy points.
QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
vs. Buffalo; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Goff has guided the Lions to an NFL-best 12-1 record (tied with K.C.) and an NFL-best 417 points and is firmly in the conversation for league MVP. After his three-TD performance last week against Green Bay, Goff has now thrown for at least two TDs in nine of his last 11 games, landing him as the overall QB9. He has 25 TD passes on the season.
Goff, who has led Detroit to 11 consecutive wins, owns a stellar 15:4 TD-to-INT ratio in front of the Lions’ faithful at Ford Field. In Week 15, he faces a Buffalo defense that has surrendered nine TD passes to opposing QBs over the last five games.
Goff also is tied with Jayden Daniels for the NFL lead in completions of 50 or more yards, and he will likely look to air it out in what is projected as the highest-scoring matchup of the week.
QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
vs. Indianapolis; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Denver’s rookie standout has outperformed preseason expectations by leaps and bounds, surprisingly ranking as the overall QB8. Since Week 5, Nix only trails Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts in average fantasy points per game (20.5) at the position.
In Week 15, Nix draws a less-than-favorable statistical matchup against a stingy Colts defense that ranks sixth in passing yards allowed (2,702) this season, so you may have reason for pause. But elite talent often outperforms numerical projections, and Nix has earned our trust.
Expect Nix, who has accounted for 14 total touchdowns in six home starts, to step up once again with the 8-5 Broncos playing for one of the AFC’s wild card spots.
WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
vs. NY Jets; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Volume, volume, volume. Over the last three games, Thomas Jr. owns an incredible 31.5% target share which has resulted in an average of 16.3 PPR points per game.
The rookie wideout, who leads the Jaguars in receptions (54), receiving yards (851) and receiving TDs (6), has posted 10+ PPR points in nine of 13 games. In Week 16, he’s in line to continue his recent production against a Jets secondary that will potentially be without star CB Sauce Gardner for a second straight game.
Gang Green’s once respectable secondary is one managers need to exploit in the fantasy playoffs. Over the last three games, New York has allowed 45 receptions, 608 receiving yards and two TDs to opposing wideouts. In case you need to see that listed in numerical form, that's a whopping 117.8 PPR points to the position in three games!
Don’t let Mac Jones being under center scare you off from using the rookie in an extremely favorable matchup against a defense that appears to have checked out on the season.
QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
vs. Chicago; Monday, 8 p.m. ET
Darnold, who is the overall QB7, is only being started in 53% of Sleeper leagues. C’mon! That needs to be closer to 80-plus. Darnold has thrown for 11 TDs over his last four starts and is tied for third among all QBs with 28 passing scores.
While Justin Jefferson is his normal dominant self (overall WR2), fellow wideout Jordan Addison has exploded more recently. Since Week 11, the second-year wideout is the overall WR3 with 94 PPR points.
Armed with a plethora of offensive weapons, Darnold is primed to crush Sleeper’s projection of QB11 (17.7 points) against a suddenly vulnerable Bears defense that has surrendered an average of 296.7 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes to opposing QBs over the last three games.
SITS
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
vs. Baltimore; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Tracy has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing season for the 2-11 Giants. The rookie back, who has been a reliable low-end RB2, only needs 336 rushing yards over his final four games to eclipse the 1,000-yard plateau.
Fantasy managers will find it hard to bench a player who produced 680 total yards and five rushing TDs over his last eight games. In Week 15, though, Tracy will face a tough matchup against a Ravens defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards (1,075) in the NFL.
Tracy, who checks in as the overall RB27, will struggle to surpass Sleeper’s 12.4 PPR-point projection. If you have Zach Charbonnet (Kenneth Walker’s status pending), Chuba Hubbard or Rachaad White on your roster, don’t be afraid to pivot.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
vs. Kansas City; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Since his return in Week 7, Chubb is the overall RB33, averaging 8.7 PPR points per game. The veteran back has become non-existent in Cleveland’s pass attack, catching one or fewer receptions in six of seven games.
In Week 15, he draws a brutal matchup against a Chiefs defense that is only allowing 58.5 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season (only one RB has topped 60 rushing yards).
Over the last five games, Kansas City’s front seven has also been stout against backs working out of the backfield in the passing game, only surrendering 30 receiving yards combined over that span.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
at Denver, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Those who invested valuable mid-round draft capital on the Colts fifth-year wideout have received minimal ROI on a player who only posted double-digit PPR points in four of 12 games this season.
Despite posting moderate production over his last three games, the overall WR51 draws a tough matchup against a Broncos defense that has only allowed seven TDs to opposing wide receivers and just one over the last four games.
Josh Downs (shoulder) may yet return, but Pittman could still face a heavy dose of shutdown CB Patrick Surtain II, who has only allowed 4.2 fantasy points per game to WRs – with only one touchdown allowed.
TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
at Las Vegas; Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Fantasy managers were rejoicing when Pitts was the TE3 over Weeks 5-8, averaging 16.1 PPR points per game. Since that stretch, though, the promising talent is the overall TE42, averaging a dismal 3.3 PPR points per game over his last five games.
In Week 15, he draws a favorable matchup with a Raiders defense that is allowing 67.2 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, but with fantasy playoff lives on the line, it is difficult to trust a player who only topped 14 receiving yards once in his last five games.
TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
at LA Chargers; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Otton has become an integral part of an injury-riddled Tampa Bay passing attack, thus soaring up the positional rankings.
The third-year tight end, who flourished while Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were out of the lineup, has struggled to produce since the latter made his return in Week 11. After averaging 86 receiving yards and 10.3 targets over Weeks 7-9, Otton has only averaged 38.8 receiving yards and 5.5 targets per game over his last three contests.
He is still the overall TE6 in PPR but draws a tough matchup against a Chargers secondary that has only surrendered one touchdown to opposing TEs all season. While it will be tough to sit a player who is averaging 10.5 PPR points per game, you need to be aware no TE has topped 48 receiving yards against L.A.’s secondary since Week 8.
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