Breaking down the biggest boom-or-bust candidates for NFL Week 1.
Let’s preface this by stating what you will read here weekly will not be for the faint of heart. The difference between winning or losing a head-to-head fantasy football matchup can often come down to thinking outside the box by making bold lineup decisions. In this feature, we will call attention to non-consensus players who pose as the biggest weekly boom-or-bust candidates.
The goal will be to analyze data, injuries and coachspeak to highlight three under-the-radar players who could conceivably crush expectations and three elite stars whose tough matchups or current circumstances point to potentially disappointing production.
Don't miss our Start 'Em, Sit 'Em column for Week 1.
Without further ado, let’s take a spin through the booms and busts of Week 1.
BOOMS
RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
vs. Dallas; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Cleveland will hand Ford RB1 duties for at least the first four games of the season, with Nick Chubb beginning the season on the PUP list as he works his way back from last season’s horrific knee injury.
In Week 1, Ford faces a Cowboys defense that surrendered 16 total touchdowns to opposing running backs last season (including the playoffs). In 2023, Ford quietly averaged 4.0 yards per rush while contributing four touchdowns on the ground. In the air, the emerging talent hauled in 44 receptions for 319 yards and five touchdowns.
With Ford having an expected and expanded role of 15+ touches, fantasy managers should not be shocked to see Sleeper’s projected RB18 (12.6 PPR points) finish among the top 12 at the position.
TE Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
vs. Carolina; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
While all the fantasy attention in New Orleans will be on Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, the Saints’ Swiss Army knife is flying under the radar. Hill’s versatility to play snaps at quarterback, running back or tight end may result in sneaky production.
With Kendre Miller being placed on injured reserve, Hill could see an expanded role as a runner against the Panthers, spelling Kamara or potentially vulturing at the goal line, as he’s been known to do. Sleeper’s projected TE21 (6.6 PPR points) for Week 1 has the potential to vastly outperform his projections due to his ability to potentially score in a variety of ways (and in Sleeper’s season-long leagues, Hill is eligible to be used as a QB or TE).
WR Greg Dortch, Arizona Cardinals
at Buffalo; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Following word that veteran WR Zay Jones has been suspended for the first five games of the season, the door has opened for Dortch to take over as Arizona’s slot wideout. In Weeks 11-18 last season, Dortch played 73.3% of the snaps and flourished, leading the team in receiving yards twice while scoring double-digit PPR points in four of those games.
In an expected high-scoring affair at the Bills, the target volume Sleeper’s projected WR65 (8.48 PPR points) could find results in strong flex appeal, making him a major boom candidate for managers looking to zag.
BUSTS
WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
vs. New York Jets; Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
After Aiyuk and the 49ers ended their offseason stalemate, there will be an instant rush among fantasy managers to insert him into starting lineups for Monday Night Football. There are multiple questions to consider here, though. Will the 49ers limit his snaps, opting to slowly work him back into game shape after he missed so much of the summer? Will the Jets deploy Sauce Gardner to shadow him?
New York only allowed seven opposing WRs to top 100 yards receiving last season, while allowing the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns (19) – impressively only surrendering five to wideouts. Temper expectations as Aiyuk builds back to last season’s form.
RB Kyren Williams, LA Rams
at Detroit; Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Rams head coach Sean McVay sprung a surprise when he shared that Williams will be the club’s punt returner. It could impact his touches out of the backfield, which is an odd direction for L.A. to take. Williams was a sensation last season, rushing for 1,283 yards and scoring 15 total touchdowns. Will he now have to split time with rookie Blake Corum more than most fantasy managers were anticipating?
Coupled with his suddenly suspect usage is a difficult matchup against a Lions defense that gave up the second-fewest rushing yards per game (88.8) in the 2023 regular season — and held Williams to 61 yards on 13 carries (and nine yards on one reception) in the playoffs. Sleeper’s projected RB7 (14.5 PPR points) is easily the riskiest top-ranked player who could plummet below RB1-level production in Week 1.
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
at Atlanta; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Sleeper’s projected WR33 (12.2 PPR points) is a major bust candidate in Week 1. The Falcons may be able to double-team Pickens, the Steelers’ best receiving weapon, as Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin III will likely be challenged by Atlanta’s secondary to make plays.
In addition to that, new Steelers QB Russell Wilson may find it difficult to target Pickens even in single coverage, provided he is shadowed by one the NFL’s best corners in A.J. Terrell. A deeper dive also reveals a major disparity in Pickens’ home/road splits. In nine games at home last season, the talented WR caught 34 passes for 659 yards and five touchdowns. In eight games on the road, there was a major drop-off, as he only secured 29 receptions for 481 yards and no scores. Pass on Pickens in Atlanta.
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