Sleeper analyzes some of the latest trends in average draft position (ADP) to see whose stock is up and whose is trending downward

Fantasy football managers are keenly aware that injuries, preseason performances and training camp battles massively affect players’ average draft position (ADP). With preseason games now underway and draft season in full swing, Sleeper is here to provide the latest trends in ADP data to help you avoid missing out on the players you want on your squad this season.

Let’s dive into players who have experienced either a rapid ascent or a noticeable fall in ADP in PPR redraft leagues over the last several months so you can be as prepared as possible and not caught off guard when you’re on the clock.

Risers

Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts (ADP 58.9 | QB6)

Richardson is consistently being drafted ahead of proven quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott and Jordan Love. The dual-threat QB, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury after just four games as a rookie, has stated “my legs have always been one of my superpowers, so trying to try to take that away from me – I don't think that's a good thing for this offense.” So while he might play a bit smarter and more cautious, he does not intend to change the way he plays overall. That’s music to fantasy owners’ ears.

Sleeper’s projection of nine rushing touchdowns for Richardson is currently tied for second-most with Jalen Hurts (only trailing Josh Allen’s 11). If you desire Richardson’s high weekly ceiling, be prepared for it to cost premium draft capital.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons (ADP 7.7 | RB2)

In early summer, Robinson’s Sleeper ADP approached double-digits due to the fact he was coming off the board near the back end of the first round. However, word has spread that Atlanta’s new coaching staff plans to use the dual-threat back in a Christian McCaffrey-like role, and that has sent Robinson’s stock soaring.

Sleeper projects that he will rush for 1,098 and eight touchdowns. It’s in PPR leagues, however, that his contributions in the passing game make him a potential league-winner. Last season, Robinson tied for second with Alvin Kamara (86) for the most RB targets behind only Breece Hall (95).

If the new coaching regime truly adheres to a CMC-like plan for Robinson, then he will easily surpass Sleeper’s projections of 55 receptions and two receiving touchdowns. Sign me up.

Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens (ADP 26.3 | RB10)

Fantasy owners are investing high draft capital in hopes of Henry finding success in his first season in Baltimore. Despite potentially being vultured by Lamar Jackson near the goal line, drafters believe the powerful veteran back will achieve double-digit rushing touchdown production for the seventh consecutive season. With Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins both off to the Chargers, he has a rather clear path to do just that.

The two-time NFL rushing touchdowns leader, who has scored 90 rushing touchdowns in 119 career games, has been assigned Sleeper’s top rushing touchdown projection of 11 (tied with McCaffrey). The bruising talent was coming off the board in the late third round in June, but he has skyrocketed up to an ADP of 26.3 – often prior to the end of the second round.

Despite less-than-ideal production in the passing game, Henry still has top-five RB potential in all scoring formats.

A Sleeper on the Rise

Luke McCaffrey, WR, Commanders (ADP 218.9 | WR79)

Washington’s 2024 third-round pick has become one of rookie QB Jayden Daniels’ top targets early in camp. The younger brother of Christian McCaffrey, he is primed to eclipse Sleeper’s projection of 31 receptions for 341 yards and two touchdowns – especially if he can overtake Jahan Dotson as Washington’s WR2.

Expect the versatile talent, currently coming off the board in the middle of the 16th round, to command higher draft capital as the start of the season nears. Don’t sleep on this potential late-round gem.

Fallers

C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans (ADP 42.7 | QB5)

Last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year is being drafted behind Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Hurts, Jackson and, shockingly in some recent drafts, Richardson. Despite owning Sleeper’s second-highest projection on passing yards (4,367) as well the top perch in passing touchdowns (33) – tied with Mahomes – the second-year stud continues to be disrespected by fantasy managers.

Stroud, who has ranged from QB4 to QB6, has resulted in value for fantasy managers who have been afforded the opportunity to invest in his dip in ADP.

Zack Moss, RB, Bengals (ADP 94.9 | RB30)

Earlier this summer, fantasy managers were investing in Moss after Joe Mixon got traded to Houston. Despite the presumption that Moss would become the Bengals’ starter after signing a two-year deal in free agency, recent word has 2023 fifth-round pick Chase Brown handling the majority of first-team reps in training camp. That has resulted in Moss falling in drafts – often behind Brown, even.

If you select Moss in the middle rounds, it would be wise to handcuff your squad with Brown. Securing both backfield options on a high-powered Cincinnati offense could result in high degrees of success.

Zamir White, RB, Raiders (ADP 80.7 | RB25)

With Josh Jacobs now in Green Bay, the third-year back sits atop the Raiders depth chart as the club’s starter in the first week of August. In Weeks 15-18 last season, White averaged 15.2 PPR fantasy points per game, but recent ADP data indicates that fantasy managers are not buying into the impressive four-game production carrying over into 2024.

Sleeper’s minimal projection of 28 receptions for 203 yards and one touchdown, combined with the solid early-camp showings for Dylan Laube and Alexander Mattison, has resulted in White now falling just outside RB2 status.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers (ADP 174.7 | WR69)

L.A.’s 2023 first-round pick was a major disappointment as a rookie, hauling in just 38 receptions for 431 yards and two touchdowns in 17 games. Earlier this summer, Johnston owned an ADP of 156 with the hopes he would see increased production following the departures of Allen to the Bears and Williams to the Jets.

That opening appears to be McConkey’s to claim, though, as drops continue to plague the former TCU standout in training camp.

Johnston now appears to have fallen well behind McConkey, Joshua Palmer and D.J. Chark on the Chargers WR depth chart.

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