The NHL Draft Lottery determines which teams get the chance to select the future stars of the league, but how does it work?
Are you curious about the NHL Draft Lottery and why it's crucial for hockey fans and fantasy players? You’ve come to the right place. Here, you’ll discover what the lottery is, how it works, its rules, odds to win it and its history. You’ll also learn how it impacts team strategies and even fantasy hockey drafts.
What is the NHL Draft Lottery?
The NHL Draft Lottery may be overlooked by some, but it’s an important day for hockey fans. For those teams not in the playoffs, the draft lottery determines where they will be picking in the upcoming draft.
It typically takes place in late April or early May, a few weeks after the regular season comes to a close.
The lottery is used in order to provide parity and balance throughout the league. Its primary function is to determine which teams will have the top picks in that year’s draft, giving those teams the right to select the top prospects of the class.
There are 16 teams in the lottery. While the other half of the league advances to the playoffs, the non-playoff teams await their drafting fate at the lottery.
NHL Draft Lottery: How It Works and Key Rules
The NHL Draft Lottery has evolved over the years. Since the 2012-13 season, in which there was a lockout, all teams not qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs have a chance at winning the first overall selection. Not all teams have the same probability, though.
Teams’ lottery odds are determined by their regular season record. The team in last place has the best chance, the second-worst team has the second-best odds, and so on.
In terms of the actual drawings for the first and second picks, 14 numbered ping pong balls are put in a lottery machine, and each participating team is assigned a series of four-number combinations. There are 1,001 possible combos, as a result.
How Far Can You Move Up in the NHL Draft Lottery?
The NHL has changed how the draft lottery has worked in recent years. Since 2022, there have been two drawings in each lottery: one for the first-overall pick and one for the second-overall pick.
Teams can move up a maximum of 10 spots. Furthermore, a team can only move up from its original draft slot a maximum of two draft lotteries in a five-year span.
If a team lower than 12th in the lottery wins the drawing, it moves up the maximum 10 spots. For example, in 2024, the St. Louis Blues had the 16th-best odds at the first overall pick. Had they won the lottery, they would’ve moved up to sixth rather than first or second. That respective pick would then go to the worst team in the standings.
How Far Can You Move Back in the NHL Draft Lottery?
While a team is able to move up as many as 10 spots in the NHL Draft lottery, it can only move back as many as two spots.
If a team finishes with the worst record in the regular season, the worst position it can have in the draft order is third. This means that the 16th-best chances are pretty much locked into pick 16, and the 15th-best chances can only move back one spot.
NHL Draft Lottery in Fantasy Hockey
The lottery is important to keep an eye on for fantasy hockey players and managers. Knowing which teams are getting the NHL’s future stars can help determine where those players will be ranked for the upcoming fantasy hockey season. And for managers in dynasty leagues, it’s especially useful to know where these players are headed when it comes to their long-term outlooks.
For example, the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery was the first since 2010 in which there was no change in the draft order. This meant that the two worst teams in the league were adding the two best players, theoretically, to their teams. In 2024 that was Macklin Celebrini to the San Jose Sharks and Artyuom Levshunov to the Chicago Blackhawks.
The Sharks and Blackhawks were the two worst teams in the league in the 2023-24 season and are expected to once again be towards the basement in the 2024-25 NHL season. That doesn’t bode well for top prospects joining bad teams.
However, if a team lower in the lottery had moved up 10 spots to snag one of the top picks, that team may be in a better position to support the young stars.
Knowing which players are going to which teams, and if they’ll be able to find success, goes a long way in determining which rookies you value in your fantasy hockey draft.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can you win the NHL Draft Lottery two years in a row?
While there are rules in place to limit how often a team can win the lottery in a span of five years, there is nothing that says a team can’t win a draft lottery two years in a row.
An NHL team has won the draft lottery in back-to-back years just once in its history. The Florida Panthers won it in 2002 (moved up from third to first with 14.2% odds) and 2003 (moved up from fourth to first with 10.7% odds). In both seasons, Florida traded the top pick.
Who cannot be drafted in an NHL draft?
There are some restrictions as to which players cannot be selected in an NHL draft. The players eligible to be taken in the NHL draft must be 18 years of age as of September 15 of that year.
How is the No. 1 NHL draft pick decided?
As we’ve been describing, the No. 1 pick in the NHL draft is determined via lottery. Any team that finished in the bottom 11 of the standings -- or had that team’s pick traded to them -- has a certain set of odds of moving up to the top spot.
The worst team in the league has a 25.5% chance. There’s a 13.5% chance for the second-worst team, all the way down to 3% for the 11th-worst team.
How does the draft lottery work in the NHL?
The draft lottery works in the NHL by giving the 16 worst teams in the league weighted odds to move up in the draft order. A team can move up a maximum of 10 spots, meaning that only the worst 11 teams have a chance at getting the first overall pick.
Make Sleeper Your Go-To Source for Hockey News
The NHL Draft Lottery is an important part in determining where the league’s future stars will start their careers. Teams – and their fans – hope that they can move up in the lottery to have a better chance at selecting the top prospects in that year’s draft.
For more hockey news regarding the draft and happenings from around the NHL, plus results and player movement, stay up to date on Sleeper. You can join by signing up on the website or downloading the app. Sleeper is the best DFS and fantasy sports platform for finding detailed information and developing better strategies to win big.
