Breaking down the biggest boom-or-bust candidates for NFL Week 3.
In Week 1, it was Allen Lazard. In Week 2, another wide receiver came off the fantasy radar and stole the show. Playing against the lowly Carolina Panthers, maligned second-year Chargers wideout Quentin Johnston posted more PPR fantasy points (22.1) in Week 2 than Tyreek Hill, Christian Kirk, DeAndre Hopkins, Tank Dell, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Courtland Sutton and Christian Watson did combined.
If the sometimes-random and boom-bust nature of fantasy football hasn’t hit you yet, then let that sink in. All of those players were regularly in starting lineups across the fantasy landscape, while Johnston was mostly likely sitting on the waiver wire.
Every week, this segment of the Sleeper newsletter is used to highlight the importance of taking risks and thinking outside the box while also trying to key in on who will be part of the booms and who will be part of the busts in the week ahead.
So whether you are seeking to remain undefeated, looking to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start or something in between, take a dive into our biggest boom/bust candidates for Week 3:
BOOMS
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
at LA Rams; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
You’d be forgiven for thinking otherwise about the 49ers QB. After all, San Francisco will be without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel against the Rams. George Kittle missed practice this week due to a hamstring injury and is in danger of sitting as well. But don’t let that lead you to benching Purdy.
Despite the rash of injuries, Purdy is still a boom candidate due to possessing weapons that are still dangerous enough in Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings. In Week 3, he faces an L.A. defense that was torched by Kyler Murray last week, surrendering 266 yards and three touchdowns in the air and an additional 59 QB rushing yards on the ground.
Purdy may not be the same threat to run, but he leads the NFL in passing yards (550) among QBs who have played two weeks (Aaron Rodgers leads the league with 624, but his Jets played their third game on Thursday night). Purdy draws a favorable matchup to surpass Sleeper’s projection of QB11 (17.6 points), and he’s currently started in just 46% of Sleeper leagues.
He has a great opportunity to finish inside the top 10, outperforming more popular options such as Anthony Richardson and Dak Prescott.
WR Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
vs. Philadelphia; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Fantasy managers invested high draft capital in Chris Olave, envisioning that he would be the clear WR1 for the Saints. But early in the season it is Shaheed who has emerged as Derek Carr’s top weapon, and you should ride his hot streak.
The third-year wideout leads the highly efficient and suddenly explosive Saints in WR targets (nine), receptions (seven), receiving yards (169) and receiving touchdowns (two) through two games. Sleeper’s projected WR32 (11.4 PPR points) for Week 3, who is still only started in 56% of Sleeper leagues, draws a favorable matchup against a vulnerable Eagles pass defense.
The overall PPR WR9 (37.2 points) has major boom potential to continue his impressive start to the season, against a Philadelphia secondary that thus far has allowed 385 yards and four touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. He’s a big deep-play threat, with a 59-yard TD and a 70-yard TD in the first two weeks, and nothing underscores a potential boom than a player who can net you 13+ fantasy points on a single play.
RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
vs. Green Bay; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Take a bow if you drafted Pollard to be an RB1 this season, because he has been exactly that. Through two games, the ex-Cowboy is shining in his first season in Tennessee, landing as the overall RB12 in PPR leagues (33.6 points).
Sleeper’s projected RB20 (11.8 points) is a major boom candidate drawing a Green Bay defense that has already been gashed by Saquon Barkley (33.2 PPR points) and Jonathan Taylor (15.5) both on the ground and in the air this season.
You should be able to count on Pollard to go big in Week 3, with the strong potential to post top-12 production for a third consecutive game.
BUSTS
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
vs. Baltimore; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
This is not the start many envisioned for one of fantasy football’s top QBs. Through the first two games, Prescott sits as the overall QB15, failing to toss multiple touchdowns in either contest.
Sleeper’s projected QB9 (18.3 PPR points) is a risky start against an aggressive Baltimore defense that has held Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew to a rather pedestrian 567 passing yards and two touchdowns combined. Despite having CeeDee Lamb at his disposal, Prescott's string of failing to eclipse 15 fantasy points should continue against a Ravens team that’s desperate for a win.
RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
vs. Houston; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Jones enters Week 3 as the overall RB19 (28.7 PPR points), averaging 15 touches and 88.5 total yards per game. But in Week 2, Jones was out-produced by his backup, Ty Chandler (82-32 in rushing yards), despite owning a significant edge in snap percentage (61%-35%). He’s also entering Week 3 a bit banged up, suffering a hip injury against San Francisco that could open the door for Chandler to steal even more snaps and carries.
Sleeper’s projected RB16 (12.8 PPR points) is a major bust candidate this week, facing a Texans defense that has held opposing running backs to just 75 yards per game (2.27 yards per rush) on the ground and two touchdowns. A deeper dive reveals that Houston has been stout defending pass-catchers out of the backfield as well, holding both Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor (0 catches) and D’Andre Swift (four catches for 24 yards) to minimal production.
Between the tough matchup, the injury concern and the teammate cutting into his workload, there’s reason to severely limit Week 3 expectations for Jones, who is being started in 81% of Sleeper leagues.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
at Buffalo; Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET
What has happened to the one-time can’t-miss prospect? Lawrence, who had posted an impressive 63% completion percentage through his first 50 games, sits as one of the most inaccurate QBs in the game, completing just 51% of his passes through the first two weeks of the season.
The overall QB22, who is only averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game, will not find it easy in Week 3 against a Bills defense that ranks fourth overall in pass defense. Buffalo has more interceptions (three) than passing touchdowns allowed (two), while posting six sacks.
The likely absence of star tight end Evan Engram (hamstring) for a second straight game will take away Lawrence’s top target and safety net, likely preventing him from any possible return to fantasy starter status. Temper expectations for at least another week.
