High expectations aren’t always met in the NFL, and these draft flops are glaring proof of that.
The NFL Draft is one of the biggest events on the sports calendar every year, and for good reason. It’s a time of great hope for all NFL teams, especially those on the wrong end of the standings who are in desperate need of an influx of young talent.
So much emphasis is placed on draft capital that early picks are the most coveted assets in the trade market. Rookies are on cheaper contracts, and if you can land a draft class full of impact players, you’ll set your team up for a glorious future.
But what happens when the draft goes horribly wrong? Not all highly hyped picks pan out, and NFL Draft history is littered with cautionary tales and college studs who turned out to be pro duds.
The NFL Draft’s Top 10 Busts of All Time
Every draft is chock full of players who don’t justify the capital used on their selections, but some busts are far more spectacular than others.
Here are 10 of the biggest swings and misses in NFL draft history:
QB JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
The former LSU star was an utter debacle in the NFL and is widely considered to be the biggest draft bust after going No. 1 overall in 2007. His success at LSU, coupled with his size (6’6”, 265 pounds) and strength, made him an extremely attractive prospect, but the measurables couldn’t overshadow everything happening on and off the field.
In a first-person piece in The Players’ Tribune, Russell outlined his codeine dependence, some significant deaths in his family and more context that, from his perspective, explains what went wrong beyond the tales of his work ethic and weight management.
Regardless, Russell was out of the NFL after 2009, lasting just 25 starts (7-18 record) and amassing 4,083 yards, 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He walked away with $39 million in guaranteed money from his rookie contract, which he eventually signed after a training-camp holdout that bled into his rookie season. That standoff was the first red flag in a brief career that wound up full of them.
QB Ryan Leaf, Chargers
“Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf?”
That was a real draft debate in 1998. Coming out of Washington State and taken at No. 2 overall, Leaf had plenty of desirable QB attributes. But he never came close to being on Manning’s block in a career beset by on-field struggles, emotional outbursts, mental illness and, ultimately, substance abuse.
On a personal level, he has overcome some daunting demons to succeed and become a leading advocate for mental wellness in the sport. He has admirably owned his cautionary tale and found his voice. As it relates to all-time draft busts, though, he’s at or near the top of the list. He threw for 13 TDs and 18 INTs with the Chargers en route to a 4-18 record as a starter. By 2002, he was out of the NFL entirely.
QB Josh Rosen, Cardinals
A year after the Cardinals took Rosen 10th overall in 2018, they drafted Kyler Murray at No. 1. You don’t typically see a highly drafted first-round QB given up on that easily, but such was Rosen’s plight in the desert — and the Cardinals’ rather immediate desire to build around someone else — that Arizona didn’t have much of a choice.
Rosen was shipped off to Miami for a couple of draft picks, and he never found steady footing in the NFL anywhere else. After his putrid rookie season (3-10 as a starter; 11 TD, 14 INT, 5 fumbles lost), Rosen started three more games total (for Miami), had four mop-up-duty appearances with Atlanta a couple of years later and disappeared from the radar entirely.
RB Trent Richardson, Browns
Richardson was a prolific runner at Alabama, but he was anything but in the NFL. To his credit, his rookie season wasn’t bad on the whole — even if it was largely inefficient — as he rushed for 950 yards and 11 TDs and caught 51 balls for 367 yards and another TD. But the Browns, who took Richardson third overall in 2012, dealt him to Indianapolis in just his second season (for a future first-round pick, in their defense), and it all rolled downhill from there. Richardson scored just seven more touchdowns in his career, averaged just 3.3 yards per carry and didn’t appear in another game after the 2014 season.
OT Tony Mandarich, Packers
Labeled “the best offensive line prospect ever” on a Sports Illustrated cover in 1989, the steroid-aided Mandarich was a total flop in the NFL. He was also part of a draft class whose top-five otherwise included Hall of Famers Troy Aikman, Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas and Deion Sanders. One of these things is not like the others…
Green Bay was absolutely duped by the facade and ultimately whiffed badly on its No. 2 overall pick.
RB Ki-Jana Carter, Bengals
Taken No. 1 overall in 1995, Carter was a dynamic running back out of Penn State, but a devastating knee injury in preseason derailed his NFL career before it got going. Considering his woes were caused by injury, it makes labeling Carter a “bust” a bit harsh, but when you go first overall — especially to a team that traded up to land the pick — and hardly wind up assisting your franchise at all, it’s tough to call it anything else.
After four injury-riddled seasons with the Bengals, Carter tried to salvage his career in Washington and New Orleans, but he was out of the NFL after 2004.
QB Akili Smith, Bengals
Two top-three-overall-pick busts in four years! Now that’s a tough feat to pull off, but perhaps that’s why the Bengals earned their “Bungles” reputation. Smith was seen as a prospect with plenty of raw talent coming out of Oregon, and his development was stunted when he engaged in a contract dispute that delayed his integration. He went on to start just 17 games in four unremarkable seasons (3-14, five TDs, 13 INTs and an awful 46.6 completion percentage).
Making matters worse for Cincinnati, the four players who went directly after Smith all enjoyed distinguished careers: Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Torry Holt and Champ Bailey.
DE Vernon Gholston, Jets
Zero sacks. Five starts. Three seasons. That’s not exactly the expected return for a supposed defensive force taken sixth overall.
Gholston was a beast at Ohio State and a workout warrior in the 2008 draft process, but as far as pass-rushing defenders go, he completely missed the mark, and he was out of the NFL after his failed stint, failing to catch on with any other teams.
DE Steve Emtman, Colts
Taken No. 1 overall out of the University of Washington in 1992, Emtman entered the NFL with a lofty bar to clear to be considered a success. Brutal knee and neck injuries completely derailed any shot of that happening, and after five sacks in 18 games played across three seasons, he was let go.
His exit was accompanied by a refusal to take a pay cut, and he caught on with Miami and Washington for a few unspectacular seasons before exiting the league at age 27.
QB Mitchell Trubisky, Bears
Not only did the Bears trade up to No. 2 overall to select Trubisky, they did so in the same draft that had Patrick Mahomes go 10th. Getting a QB pick wrong, that’s one thing. Whiffing on a generational talent in the process … woof. Trubisky was 29-22 as a starter in Chicago but could never meet the expectations heaped upon him due to his draft status.
After four seasons, Trubisky went on to toil as a backup with the Bills and Steelers, while the Bears’ search for a franchise QB led to two more early first-round selections: No. 11 overall pick Justin Fields in 2021 and, eventually, Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in 2024.
How to Avoid Possible Busts in Your Fantasy Football Draft
It’s impossible to avoid draft busts, both in real life and fantasy football. You can never fully project the future, no matter how much intel is at your disposal and how refined your scouting reports are, and much is dependent on things out of your (or a real NFL general manager’s) control.
That being said, here are three steps you can take to protect your investment as a fantasy GM.
1. Assess players’ situations, not just their talent
Sometimes, it all comes down to opportunity and the players around you. A supposed fantasy stud can come with all the hype in the world, but if he’s mired in an awful offense, or attached to a subpar QB or offensive line, then his stats are going to reflect that.
Conversely, a really average player by all metrics could wind up in a land of opportunity with a heavy workload or high target share and turn into a late-round steal. Name brand isn’t everything.
2. Beware rookie hype
Rookies can have prolific seasons, but it’s a lot to expect a newcomer to the NFL to transition seamlessly from college, where their talent and physical skills may be so far superior to the competition. Drafting rookies early, no matter their projections, is a risky proposition that doesn’t always pan out (unless you’re in a dynasty league, of course).
3. Fit goes beyond the Xs and Os
Some NFL teams just “have it” when it comes to integrating a new player, no matter his past both on and off the field. But others traditionally do not, and it’s worth considering whether a player has been put in a situation that might not be the best from all perspectives.
See also: Biggest NBA Draft Busts of All Time
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a player an NFL draft bust?
When a player is taken early in the NFL draft and fails to meet expectations in spectacular fashion, that qualifies him as a bust. Some players can shed that label over time — although it may come on a different team than the one that drafted him.
Which QB is the biggest draft bust in NFL history?
Given how many busts there have been at the position, it’s up for debate. But the names listed above (JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Josh Rosen, Akili Smith, Mitchell Trubisky) all have a great claim to the dubious title. Others include Tim Couch, Heath Shuler, Andre Ware, Johnny Manziel and more recent early first-round picks like Trey Lance and Zach Wilson.
Why are there so many NFL draft busts?
Scouting is an inexact science, and the NFL is a very demanding and complex league to master. In college, players can sometimes get by on physical tools alone, but when pitted against teams full of players who are just as big, just as fast or just as agile, there can be a rude awakening.
The transition to the NFL isn’t for everyone, and if prospects don’t wind up in situations that are conducive to their development, then their natural talent and skill will only get them so far. Perhaps this is why the average length of an NFL career is just a little above 3 years.
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