What Does ADP Mean in Fantasy Football?
What Does ADP Mean in Fantasy Football and How Is It Used?
Unlike a final exam or pop quiz in school, the use of cheat sheets is encouraged during the fantasy football draft process. And one of the best indicators of how a snake draft may go is the pooled data of a platform’s ADP.
Referring to it will help you prepare as you come to grips with your draft position and start considering the possibilities. That information will also plant the seed for when you’ll think it’s time to draft a player vs. when you’ll think you can wait another round before making your move.
So let’s dive deeper into the world of ADP and how it impacts your fantasy team.
What Exactly is ADP?
ADP stands for Average Draft Position, and it’s a very useful metric for fantasy owners to understand when preparing for their drafts.
Its definition is very literal: it takes into account the average draft position for players across a platform’s entire user base during mock and real drafts — and not just that, but it can usually be broken down into different rankings based on leagues with different scoring or draft settings.
Player ADP for a PPR (point per reception) league, for instance, is going to be different than ADP in a non-PPR, where pass catchers aren’t valued as heavily. ADP for a superflex league, where a second quarterback can be started in a flex spot, will be vastly different from a non-superflex league, where quarterbacks don’t have as much value.
Studying ADP allows managers to get a general idea for when they should expect players to go — and when they might need to reach for a player they can’t stand to miss.
If you’re sitting at pick 62 and you know it’s going to be a long wait before the snake draft swings back your way, you could assess the players available, consult the ADP rankings and then decide on whether you think you should snag the targeted player whose ADP is 74, since he’s unlikely to make it back to you in the next round.
ADP should not be the end-all for your decisions for a few reasons:
- Some drafts take place considerably earlier than others and data points for players shift over time
- Mock drafts that inform ADP rankings may be full of automated users whose picks don’t reflect human behavior
- ADP varies from site to site, which means you'll want to be extra sure you're referring to the rating that best suits your draft needs
- Because it's an average, ADP won't accurately capture the sleepers and breakout players who you'll need to field a champion
What ADP can do, at the very least, is guide you based on the actions of hordes of other fantasy users who have been sitting in your very position.
Why Is ADP Important?
ADP is important, because it shows you what other drafters are doing, and it removes much surprise out of the equation as you get set to draft. Sure, some leaguemates will reach for players either based on roster need or personal preference, and if someone in your league is on autodraft, then a kicker might be thrown into the mix far earlier than anticipated.
ADP won’t account for everything and should not be your only resource. But it can give even the most novice of fantasy players a leg up on draft night, and it can provide the most experienced of users ample data from which they can derive their finest and most potent strategies.
ECR vs. ADP: Key Differences
When preparing for a draft or on draft night itself, you may come across another three-letter abbreviation: ECR. That stands for Expert Consensus Rankings, which is a different way of assessing the fantasy player pool.
ECR takes into account the rankings (pre-draft and weekly throughout the season) produced by the top fantasy football writers across the industry. The thinking behind it is that while some experts may vary in their analysis, across the board, an aggregation and averaging of those subjective rankings will produce a consensus feeling about players and generate the closest possible approximation to the landscape.
Think about ECR as Yelp for fantasy football. The more reviews a 4.8-rated restaurant has, for example, the more likely you are to feel secure in your decision to go there, as opposed to a place whose credentials are based on just one or two reviews. The big difference here is that reviews are generally coming from the most qualified voices in the field.
The big contrast between ECR and ADP is that ECR is based on opinion and experts’ preferences, while ADP is based on cold, hard data produced by fantasy drafters. One says how things should go, the other says how things have actually been going.
Both are helpful tools to consult as you set your draft board.
3 Tips on How to Use ADP in Your Draft Strategy
Don’t Overlook Your League’s Roster and Scoring Settings
ADP figures won’t be very helpful if they’re coming from leagues without the same roster and scoring parameters as yours. For example, if you have three starting WR spots as opposed to the more traditional two, you’re likely going to place a higher emphasis on getting those right, so your need for drafting receivers earlier may not match the ADP you’re consulting.
If your league offers weekly point bonuses for yard landmarks (i.e. 300 yards passing or 100 yards rushing or receiving), ADP lists aren’t likely to take that wrinkle into account, either.
Use ADP as a Guide, but Stay Flexible
Players will consistently outperform or underperform their ADP. That’s the nature of the beast. The best you can do as a fantasy manager is use the information at your disposal and make informed decisions.
If a player’s ADP is top 24, that doesn’t mean he has to be taken by you in the first two rounds, not if news about him is trending in the opposite direction and opportunities appear to be arising for another player whose ADP happens to be in the 40s or beyond.
It’s important to take all tools into account when making your picks. ADP is just one of them.
If You Want a Player, Go Get Him
Just because the ADP list is telling you that a player you really want might make it back to you in the fifth round doesn’t mean you should rely solely on that metric. Take into account who is in your league, your opponents’ roster needs during the draft and your own roster needs, along with who else is available.
If it’s an irresponsible reach, then hold off and accept that your guy might not make it back around. But if the conditions are right and it’s a player you can’t comprehend not having on your team, then go get him. It won’t matter what his ADP was if he winds up leading your team to victory.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is high ADP good or bad?
High ADP means a player is being drafted early on. That could be good for the player’s outlook and stature but bad for your hopes of landing him at a more palatable pick slot.
How do I apply ADP to my keeper or dynasty league?
Keeper and dynasty leagues are a bit less straightforward when it comes to ADP application. Since so many players are not available to be drafted and your keeper league’s player pool is exclusive to just you and your league’s other managers, a site’s ADP may be slightly less helpful when it comes to providing a guide.
It can still give you an overall sense of player values and help carve out some ideas and strategy pathways, but having certain players ineligible throws a wrench into ADP suitability.
In a twist that heaps an immense amount of value on ADP, some keeper leagues use the list to generate the price of a keeper in subsequent seasons. For instance, if a player’s current ADP is in the top 12, and you’re in a 12-team league, then you would have to forfeit your first-round pick to keep him on your roster.
As for dynasty rookie drafts, there are specific ADP lists for these leagues, including on Sleeper, so if you are in one, use that set of ADP rankings for a more pared-down player pool.
How Accurate Is ADP in Fantasy Football?
ADP is as accurate as it gets purely from a numbers standpoint. There’s no subjectivity involved, it’s just a pooling of players’ draft positions averaged over the number of times they have been drafted by managers on a single site.
If a player’s ADP on a site is 32.4, then that’s where he’s generally being drafted on that site. That same example is not, however, meant to indicate that he is roughly the 32nd-best player up for grabs in your draft.
Can ADP Change Over Time?
Absolutely, which is why the numbers need to be used as a guide but not gospel. A star player who gets injured at the end of preseason may have an enticing ADP based on his expectations when healthy, but now that he’s hurt, his ADP will slide and so, too, will his projections for the season.
Headlines, camp performance and player transactions all impact ADP, which is why the numbers will fluctuate as drafters take more into consideration over the course of the offseason.
Can ADP Be Used for Auction Drafts?
ADP doesn’t have much utility for auctions, since there is no draft order. It can still serve as an indicator of player value, but you’re better off consulting a different kind of chart, AAV (average auction value), for a more appropriate guide. The concept is the same, it’s just more applicable to that kind of draft format.
Let’s Get Drafting!
Now that you’ve got a handle on ADP and how to best utilize it to help your fantasy team, try your hand at mock drafts and season-long fantasy football leagues on Sleeper.
You can sign up via the website or by downloading the app and start enjoying the benefits that Sleeper offers, which include ADP rankings for all types of drafts, the ability to customize all facets of your league, an ad-free experience and dynamic chat capabilities for you and your friends to take your enjoyment to the next level.