Rookie Spotlight: Top 3 QBs Set to Take Off in 2024
Introducing the 2024 Rookie QB Class
Here is your crash course on the top rookie quarterbacks heading into the 2024 NFL season: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. We’ll be discussing their college careers, NFL landing spots, rookie season, and long-term fantasy expectations. There’s potential for another 2020 situation, where fantasy managers reaped the benefits of four multi-year starters in Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
College Career
Williams had early success as a freshman at Oklahoma in 2021 before transferring to USC. As a sophomore, he won the Heisman Trophy as the best overall player in college football. That 2022 season saw Williams throw for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
Along with his superb arm talent, Williams is a tactical scrambler, tallying double-digit rushing touchdowns in both seasons at USC. Williams consistently frustrated college defenses with the way he navigated outside the pocket and created passing and rushing opportunities even after the original play had broken down.
NFL Landing Spot
His junior season wasn’t quite as impressive, but he did enough for the Bears to select him with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Usually, QBs picked first overall go to offenses without many playmakers – think Bryce Young and the Panthers last season. But Williams will be throwing to the elite receiving trio of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and, the ninth overall pick, WR Rome Odunze. Williams also benefits from sure-handed tight end Cole Kmet and a decent pass-catch running back in D’Andre Swift.
Rookie Season Expectations
Sleeper projects Williams for more than 3,800 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns and 272 rushing yards. That would be the seventh-most total yards by a rookie quarterback in NFL history, yet it wouldn’t be surprising if Williams flirted with C.J. Stroud’s passing stats his rookie season last year (4,108 yards, 23 TD). For 2024, think of Williams as a fringe fantasy QB1, a guy you can pair with Dak Prescott or Jordan Love types in redraft leagues (2QB formats).
Long-Term Outlook
In the long run, Herbert, Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes are good dynasty value comps. Expect a decade-plus of usable fantasy seasons from Williams’ career. His Sleeper ADP in rookie drafts is mid-first round for 1-QB leagues, and 1.01 in superflex/2-QB formats. In dynasty startups, Williams’s 1-QB ADP is late fourth round, and in superflex/2-QB, he’s the 10th overall pick.
Kurt Benkert’s Take on Williams:
“Caleb Williams has all of the same skill sets that Patrick Mahomes does, he’s just going to have to accelerate his learning curve and learn to weather everything that comes with being a Bear and playing in the NFC North.”
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
College Career
Daniels flashed as a freshman at Arizona State in 2019, throwing for 2,943 yards with just two interceptions. Arizona State only played four games due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and Daniels was a much shakier passer the following season, though he did run for at least 75 yards in four games during that 2021 season. Daniels transferred to LSU for the 2022 and 2023 seasons, where his game really took off. His 2023 Heisman-winning season saw him compile video-game numbers on a weekly basis. He finished the season with 318 passing yards and 95 rushing yards per game, though at least part of his success is thanks to a receiving core that featured 2024 first-round picks Malik Nabers (New York Giants, sixth overall) and Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars, 23rd overall) at wide receiver.
NFL Landing Spot
The Commanders recognized Daniels’ upside and selected him second overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Terry McLaurin is the headliner among the team’s skill-position stars, but beyond that, the cupboard is rather bare. If new signing and pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler can stay healthy and recapture past form and if third-year WR Jahan Dotson can make a significant leap, then Daniels would have considerably more support.
Rookie Season Expectations
Washington’s offensive line is a bottom-tier unit, so Daniels will likely use his legs frequently. Sleeper projects Daniels to rush for more than 500 yards this season, though his upside is closer to 1,000. That would help fortify his floor, at the very least. Washington’s dearth of explosive options at the skill positions explains Daniels’ conservative 19-14 TD-INT ratio Sleeper passing projection. Like Williams, Daniels is the perfect QB2 for redraft (ADP 115 on Sleeper). In rookie drafts, Daniels will usually go at the end of the first round in 1-QB formats, though he’s a top-four pick in superflex/2-QB.
Long-Term Outlook
Daniels is overly slender for the position at 6’4” 210 lbs, and that couples with concerns over his lack of top-tier arm strength. As we’ve seen with Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts though, highly mobile quarterbacks can play at an MVP level without the cannon of Josh Allen. In dynasty startup drafts, Daniels should go in a similar place to Herbert and Kyler Murray. Even if Daniels struggles with injuries or ineffectiveness as a rookie, his value should be insulated due to his running capabilities, much like second-year Colts starter Anthony Richardson.
Kurt Benkert’s Take on Daniels:
“Jayden Daniels is lightning in a bottle and can do everything that he is asked to as a passer. He’s gonna have to elevate his team around him in a really tough division.”
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
College Career
Maye sat behind Sam Howell at North Carolina in 2021 before taking over as the team’s starter for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. In his first two games as a starter, he scored 10 total touchdowns without throwing an interception. He went on to throw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns, while also rushing for nearly 700 yards. That banner year saw Maye finish 10th in the 2022 Heisman race, with scouts and the media raving about his sublime arm strength. Like Williams, Maye’s 2023 season was a statistical step backwards, but his overall package and outlook were still promising enough for the Patriots to select him third overall in the draft.
NFL Landing Spot
For 2024 and beyond, dynasty gamers should have real concerns with Maye’s landing spot. The Patriots have arguably the worst group of skill position players in the league, and we’ve seen rookie quarterbacks develop bad habits in past situations like this – think Sam Darnold with the Jets. To keep Maye from being thrown to the wolves too early, it’s likely he starts the season as Jacoby Brissett’s backup, which would lower the ceiling on his immediate impact.
Rookie Season Expectations
This year, Maye should be largely off your fantasy radar in redraft. There’s a slight chance for rushing volume, but Sleeper’s 271-yard projection doesn’t leave much room for optimism. If Maye can survive his rookie year, the future outlook is much rosier. It’s rare to get a quarterback of Maye’s talent around the eighth pick in superflex rookie drafts. There is recent precedent for Maye to outperform expectations in 2024 too. While he carries obvious risk this season, we just saw Stroud rise above a rough Houston situation – at least as it looked on paper before the 2023 season began – and put up a historic rookie season.
Long-Term Outlook
Maye isn’t quite the polished passer that Williams is, nor is he a dangerous runner like Daniels; however, the upside to Maye’s profile is that of a lesser Herbert as a passer with the legs of Daniel Jones. After his rookie season, Maye will likely be valued similarly to either Burrow or Young in dynasty leagues. Drafting Maye is leaning into the player’s talent over his situation.
Kurt Benkert’s Take on Maye:
“Drake Maye has a really tall task against him - he is not set up for success in New England - but he has the frame to be a good quarterback for a long time if he can get his acclimation speed up to the NFL”
Last Word: Fantasy Football Implications for 2024
The 2024 rookie QB class looks like one of the strongest groups of the past decade and could have a major impact on fantasy rosters. To prepare for the upcoming fantasy football season, join a mock draft on Sleeper to see where Williams, Daniels and Maye are likely to land.
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Note: This breakdown originally appeared in the Sleeper Newsletter. Sign up below to get timely updates, fantasy insights and exclusive analysis using Sleeper proprietary data.