2 Sleepers and 2 Busts Based on 2024 ADP

Josh Larky -

Identifying sleepers and busts is critical for nailing your fantasy draft. We’ve identified two under-the-radar players to keep your eyes on in the middle rounds of drafts, along with two early-round players who are major trap fodder for fantasy managers based on their current average draft positions (ADP). 

Sleeper: Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs 

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, and since becoming a starter in 2018, he has averaged 5,036 passing yards and 39 passing touchdowns, per 17-game season. We want to draft pass-catchers on the Chiefs, and there is current uncertainty surrounding Hollywood Brown’s recent injury and Rashee Rice’s potential suspension. 

Insert Worthy, the rookie the Chiefs traded up to select 28th overall in April’s draft. Worthy set the NFL Combine record with a 4.21-second 40-yard-dash after leading Texas in receiving yards all three of his college seasons. 

Worthy is more than affordable as the WR38 (Sleeper ADP 77) in PPR drafts, and Sleeper currently projects 61 receptions for 817 receiving yards. Of course, there’s significant upside to Worthy’s projection depending on Brown’s health status and Rice’s legal developments. Travis Kelce turns 35 during the season, so there’s also potential for the long-time superstar to take another step back after failing to reach 1,000 yards last season. 

All that said, we also suggest buying the injury dip on Brown. Fantasy managers were rightfully frustrated with him down the stretch last year, but Brown was playing with three different quarterbacks while suffering through a heel injury. This time, it’s an upper-body injury for Brown with a short recovery timetable, so his speed and explosiveness should be less affected. And when he returns, he’ll be catching passes exclusively from Mahomes, rather than backup QBs Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune. 

The two prior seasons, in 2021 and ‘22, Brown’s 17-game pace was 96 receptions and 1,042 yards. As the WR40 (ADP 82) on Sleeper, Brown merits fantasy consideration along with Worthy.

Shrewd fantasy managers should continue to monitor Brown’s health status over the next few weeks, but this entire Chiefs offense looks primed for a monstrous season. 

Sleeper: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals 

One of Brown’s former QBs, Murray once looked like the next great fantasy stalwart at the position, finishing as QB3 and QB4 in fantasy points per game in 2020 and ‘21, respectively. Then, he tore his ACL partway through the ‘22 season, when he’d been the QB6 per game up to that point. Last year, Murray only played the second half of the season due to the lingering injury, and he still managed a QB8 per-game fantasy finish. 

It didn’t help that Brown was in and out of the lineup due to injuries, so Trey McBride was his only reliable target down the stretch. Now, the Cardinals added a potential generational receiver prospect in Marvin Harrison Jr., so Murray gets another top weapon to pair with his stud tight end. 

Sleeper projects 3,790 passing yards for Murray in 2024, which would be the second-highest mark of his career. He is also another year removed from the ACL tear, so his rushing production should spike again. Sleeper projects 572 rushing yards, which would be the second-highest total of his career. 

Murray’s redraft ADP currently sits at 83 (QB9) on Sleeper, yet he currently projects as the QB7 in fantasy points per game.

There is top-three fantasy upside for Murray depending on his legs and Harrison Jr.’s ability to acclimate to the NFL level. 

For full projections on each player, you can go to the Fantasy Football Research MINI in the Sleeper App. Clicking on “Season ADP” will then allow you to adjust scoring setting, redraft vs. dynasty and whether you want to sort players based on ADP or their projected fantasy points. Research ahead of your fantasy draft has never been easier, courtesy of the Sleeper app. 

Bust: Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions 

This will surely be an unpopular stance after LaPorta just scored the most fantasy points ever by a rookie tight end. However, the more time spent digging into his rookie season and situation, the harder it is to justify his redraft PPR Sleeper ADP of 19, as the TE1 off the board. 

LaPorta recorded 86 receptions (fourth) and 889 receiving yards (fifth) last year, and on a per route basis, he was the fifth-best tight end at earning targets. The one area where LaPorta really thrived? Touchdowns. No tight end caught more than LaPorta’s 10. Heading into 2024, it’s tough to see where LaPorta’s role can expand. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a superstar, and Jahmyr Gibbs is likely going to be more involved than he was last year, too. 

The Lions’ defense is also expected to improve after they invested their first- and second-round draft picks into the cornerback position. If anything, this could slightly reduce the offense’s passing volume, since fewer matchups should become shootouts. 

Sleeper projects 81 receptions, 839 yards and seven touchdowns for LaPorta’s 2024 campaign, the same amount of fantasy points as Kelce.

Even more worrisome, this projection is less than one fantasy point per game above Mark Andrews, McBride and George Kittle. Snagging LaPorta as TE1 off the board in the second round is unlikely to give you a major positional advantage in fantasy football. 

Bust: Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks 

Walker has some Saquon Barkely to his game, where the big, explosive plays are counterbalanced by a whole lot of two-yard runs. Unlike Barkley, though, Walker is not much of a pass-catcher, which severely caps his fantasy upside. As a rookie in 2022, Walker was the RB16 in PPR fantasy points per game, before falling to the RB20 last season. Both years, Walker missed multiple games due to injury. 

Looking ahead to 2024, he’ll be sharing backfield duties once again with Zach Charbonnet, who is a more fluid receiver out of the backfield than Walker. Sleeper projects 231 carries, 970 rushing yards and 29 receptions for Walker, but Charbonnet’s workload still comes in at 137 carries and 33 receptions. 

Playing behind arguably the NFL’s weakest offensive line, Walker needs an injury to Charbonnet to even flirt with low-end fantasy RB1 status.

Most likely, fantasy managers drafting Walker at his redraft PPR Sleeper ADP of 52 (RB17) will get a middling fantasy RB2 with a long injury history. 

Now Act on What You’ve Learned 

Pat yourself on the back, because you’re now more prepared to tackle your upcoming fantasy football drafts. Research within the Sleeper app is FREE and easy, and it gives you the ability to identify even more sleepers and busts than the ones listed above when preparing to dominate your season-long fantasy league drafts. 

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