Sleeper Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - NFL Week 5: It's Bye Week Replacement Time

If having to deal with a plethora of injuries and underperforming stars wasn’t stressful enough for fantasy managers, now it’s time to navigate the bye weeks. The Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Titans are first up, adding to the list of obstacles that have fantasy managers either heading to the waiver wire or looking to their benches or the trade market in earnest. 

The weekly frustration this season is real. In Week 4, heavily-started talents De'Von Achane (5.9 PPR points), James Cook (5.8), Breece Hall (3.8) and Kyle Pitts (0) posted shockingly bad production despite having plus-matchups. To compound matters, fantasy managers are struggling to determine when/if elite standouts like Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Zay Flowers and Garrett Wilson will finally meet their fantasy expectations.

In the meantime, alternatives may be necessary, and they may be found in some not-so-obvious places. Please remember that for purposes of this space, our weekly “starts” are players we’re targeting who are being started in 70% or less of Sleeper leagues at time of writing.

Let’s jump into Week 5’s starts/sits:

STARTS

WR Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers

at LA Rams; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Jordan Love returned from his Week 1 knee injury and didn’t miss a beat from a fantasy perspective, posting the second-most points (31.2) among all QBs against the Vikings. 

However, in the loss to Minnesota, starting WR Christian Watson suffered a high-ankle sprain. Following the injury, Wicks stepped up and led all Green Bay wideouts with a 24% target share (13 targets), hauling in five receptions for 78 yards and two touchdowns. 

The second-year WR, who finished as the week’s overall WR3 (24.8 PPR points), is instantly a must-start. Wicks, who projects as Sleeper’s WR33 (11.5 PPR points) in Week 5, will see the heavy target volume continue if Watson is forced to miss extended time. Started in just 7% of Sleeper leagues, Wicks draws a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that has allowed an average of 148 yards per game and seven touchdowns to opposing wideouts. 

WR Wan'Dale Robinson, NY Giants

at Seattle; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Don’t look now, but the Giants have two reliable fantasy football wideouts in their offense. Playing alongside stud rookie Malik Nabers, Robinson has developed into a valid WR2/flex option in PPR formats. The third-year receiver has turned 64% snap percentage into an impressive 25.5% target share. Resulting from that heavy usage, Robinson has hauled in 26 receptions for 194 yards and a touchdown in four games–good for overall PPR WR22.

In Week 5, the speedy Robinson draws a favorable matchup against a Seahawks defense that just allowed 11 receptions for 186 yards (16.9 yards per reception) and two scores to Lions’ wide receivers on Monday. Robinson is only being started in 25% of Sleeper leagues but can easily exceed his WR41 projection (9.9 points) – especially if Nabers (concussion) is forced to miss out. 

WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

vs. Colts; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

The rookie WR is the lone bright spot for a struggling 0-4 Jaguars team. After four games, BTJ ranks as the overall WR14, impressively averaging 14.5 PPR points per game.

In Week 5, Sleeper’s projected WR32 (11.8 points) draws a favorable home matchup against a Colts defense that has surrendered the sixth-most passing yards (1,031) on the season. Thomas Jr. should post yet another double-digit PPR performance against an Indianapolis' secondary that has already allowed three 100+ receiving yard efforts on the year: to Nico Collins (117), Rome Odunze (112) and George Pickens (113).

Despite Trevor Lawrence’s vast struggles, this could be the perfect get-right spot for Jacksonville’s QB, who owns a notable 9-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in six career games against the Colts. While the first instinct may be to favor Christian Kirk, don’t leave his rookie counterpart, who is only being started in 48% of Sleeper leagues, on your bench.  

QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

vs. NY Jets; Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (London)

Darnold, who was “seeing ghosts” as the starting QB of the Jets, simply looks like a different player. The 2018 No. 3 overall pick, who looked like a bust after six seasons in the NFL, leads the NFL in touchdown passes (11) and passer rating (118.9) while ranking second in yards per pass (8.8) among all regular starting QBs. Darnold, who is one of only four QBs to start all four weeks and average 20+ fantasy points per week (20.3), is playing at an elite level guiding Kevin O'Connell’s offense.

As we always stress, pay attention to any revenge game angle. Darnold, who is being started in only 33% of Sleeper leagues, will surely be motivated to send his former club to its third loss of the season across the pond in London.

Darnold will face a Jets pass defense in a matchup that, on paper, does not appear favorable. But the much-maligned veteran, armed with his slew of weapons, is poised to exploit a secondary that has recorded just one interception in four games.

If you need a bye week replacement for Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts, don’t hesitate to start Darnold. 

RB Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens

at. Cincinnati; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

Hill, started in just 10% of Sleeper leagues, needs to be shown more respect by fantasy managers. While the NFL’s leading-rusher, Derrick Henry, will be the one to exploit a Bengals defense yielding an average of 114.3 yards (4.5 yards per rush) on the ground to opposing RBs, Hill can continue to shine in his pass-catching role. 

The fifth-year back, who is second on the Ravens in receptions (16) and receiving yards (161), is shaping up to crush Sleeper’s projection of RB38 (6.6 PPR points). Henry may be off to an MVP-caliber start, but Hill quietly sits as the overall RB25 (11.4 PPR points per game) and is a trustworthy RB2/flex for those owners looking for a bye week replacement for David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Saquon Barkley or J.K. Dobbins.

SITS

QB Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

at Kansas City; Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET 

After a torrid start to the season, with six TD passes in two games, Carr has regressed immensely. Over his last two, he has thrown more interceptions (two) than scores (one). His struggles have pushed the veteran down to overall QB15, and despite owning the eighth-best passer rating (103.9) among regular starters in the NFL, Carr belongs on the bench this week.

In Week 5, the Saints face a Chiefs pass defense that has only allowed one opposing QB to throw multiple touchdowns in a game this season (Joe Burrow, two).

Fantasy owners also need to avoid using Carr considering that he owns a 3-14 record in 17 career starts against Kansas City (with his extensive experience coming as a member of the Raiders). Expect a third consecutive bad outing.

WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

at New England; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

Without Tua Tagovailoa at QB, things have hit rock bottom in Miami. Due to the current state of the Dolphins QB situation, Hill’s talents are simply being wasted: he is averaging a dismal 29 receiving yards over the last three games.

We stressed last week that Hill would fail to surpass Sleeper’s projections, and he should once again fall short of his WR20 (12,6 PPR points) projection. Tyler Huntley, who only threw for 96 yards in the Week 4 loss to Tennessee, will face a New England defense that held Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, and Brock Purdy to just two TD passes combined. 

While Miami’s QB situation remains like this, fantasy owners either need to turn to other options or be willing to accept Hill’s single-digit PPR performances.

RB Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys

at Pittsburgh; Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET 

Dowdle sits as the overall RB34 after posting over 8.5 fantasy points in three consecutive games. Despite wrestling the starting role away from an aging Ezekiel Elliott and leading the Cowboys in rushing yards, Dowdle can not be trusted on Sunday night against Pittsburgh.

In Week 5, he encounters a tough Steelers defense that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards (347). In addition to only surrendering 69.3 rushing yards per game and one total touchdown to opposing running backs, they have held RBs to an average of just 31 receiving yards through the air. Owners need to temper expectations for the emerging talent, who will struggle to surpass Sleeper’s RB28 projection (8.4 PPR points).

TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

at Cincinnati; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

It is time to wave the white flag. Fantasy managers need to stop using Andrews in starting lineups immediately.

The seventh-year veteran ranks as TE39 with just six receptions for 65 yards on the season. Despite being on the field for 54% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps, he is simply not part of the passing game plan, with just nine targets in four games. In his one chance vs. Buffalo on Sunday night, he committed a brutal drop. 

It’s just not clicking for him, and in Week 5, Andrews will face a Bengals defense that has not allowed any touchdowns and only 28.8 yards per game to opposing TEs this season.

After back-to-back games of 0-point production, Andrews not only needs to be benched by fantasy managers but is trending toward being sent to waivers.

RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals

vs. Ravens; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

Moss, who is averaging 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game, is among the early-season surprises, ranking as the overall RB18 despite splitting carries with Chase Brown. 

In Week 5, Moss has a brutal matchup against a Ravens defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards (231) of any team over the first month of the season. In addition to shutting down the run, Baltimore’s defense has not allowed any opposing RBs to score via the air, while notably holding Isiah Pacheco (33 receiving yards), Dowdle (24) and James Cook (nine) in check. 

Despite the impressive overall start, Moss needs to hit the pine.

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