Sleeper Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - NFL Week 16: How to Navigate the Injury-Riddled Fantasy Landscape
If your fantasy football league’s playoffs kicked off last week and you either survived or had a first-round bye, then you’re onto the semifinals in the quest for your coveted fantasy league trophy.
It’s quite possible that you’re shorthanded for the next set of must-win matchups, though, with elite and widely-started options such as Patrick Mahomes, David Montgomery, Nick Chubb, Jaylen Waddle and Alvin Kamara all among those suffering injuries in Week 15.
Besides using our pivotal Week 16 playoff edition waiver wire guide, our suggested starts and sits for the all-important second week of the fantasy playoffs are designed to navigate the injury-riddled fantasy landscape. As we indicate on a weekly basis, all “start” suggestions are pooled from players who are being started in 70% or less of Sleeper leagues at time of writing.
Our Week 16 list kicks off with two veteran quarterbacks who went predominantly undrafted in leagues this summer yet rank in the upper echelon of fantasy QBs.
STARTS
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
at Dallas; Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Mayfield is still only being started in 55% of Sleeper leagues despite being the overall QB5 – behind only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow.
Despite losing top target Chris Godwin after just seven games, Mayfield has led Tampa Bay atop the NFC South on the strength of guiding the second-highest scoring offense in the conference. The Bucs’ 403 points scored ranks behind only Detroit (459).
Mayfield, who has thrown the third-most touchdowns (32) this season, is primed to crush Sleeper’s projection of QB8 (17.8 points) against a Dallas defense that has surrendered multiple TD passes in half of its games this season and just lost Pro Bowl CB Trevon Diggs (knee) for the rest of the season.
QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
at Chicago; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
We listed Goff in this section last week and he certainly did not disappoint, posting the most fantasy points (41.1) by a QB not named Josh Allen this season. The home/road splits are well known, but there's no ignoring the man who pilots the highest-scoring offense in the NFL yet is started in just 47% of Sleeper leagues.
Goff, who is second in passing yards (3,759) and fourth in touchdowns (30), faces a Bears defense that has surrendered multiple TD passes to opposing QBs in three of the last four games. And with David Montgomery (knee) lost for the season, the Lions’ offense will likely lean more on Goff’s arm, which is music to the ears of his fantasy managers.
RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
at Cincinnati; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
With Chubb (broken foot) being lost for the season, Cleveland will once again hand RB1 backfield duties over to Ford. Prior to Chubb’s season debut in Week 7, Ford was a solid RB2, averaging 10.2 PPR points per game.
Despite limited touches (nine) last week, the third-year back posted a season-high 19.4 points. With a full workload ahead in Week 16, Ford draws a favorable matchup against a Bengals defense that has allowed 123.4 total yards per game and 15 TDs total to opposing RBs.
WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
at Las Vegas; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
If ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Last week we touted the rookie out of LSU in this space, and we are back for more. BTJ, who exploded for 32.5 PPR points, has catapulted all the way up to the overall WR7 on the season.
Thomas has become a model of consistency, posting 10+ PPR points in 10 of 14 games. In Week 16, he draws a plus-matchup against a Raiders secondary that has allowed 27 receptions for 418 yards and four TDs to opposing WRs over the last three weeks.
For those who prefer to see that listed in numerical form for easier context, that's 92.8 PPR points to the position in three games. A team allowing 30.9 PPR points to WRs since Week 11 facing a wideout who is averaging 22.6 PPR points per game over that span. It’s simple math.
WR Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
at Dallas; Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Since we listed Mayfield in the top spot, say hello to our correlation play of the fantasy semifinals. Mike Evans, who is the WR8 (47.8 PPR points) over the last two weeks, is deservedly garnering all the accolades. However, fantasy managers are sleeping on a player who slots in only a few spots behind Evans as the overall WR11 (40.4 PPR points) over the same two-game stretch.
The rookie wideout, who is only being started in 9% of Sleeper leagues, draws a matchup with a Dallas defense that has allowed 20 opposing WRs to post double-digit PPR production this season.
With Evans rightfully drawing the primary focus of the Cowboys’ secondary, McMillian is primed to crush Sleeper’s projection of WR40 (11.2 points).
SITS
RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
vs. Houston; Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
Since returning from a fractured fibula suffered in Week 2, Pacheco has been a major disappointment for managers who were excited for his return for the stretch run and the fantasy playoffs. In his three games back, Pacheco is just the overall RB41, though, posting 19.7 PPR points combined against the Raiders, Chargers and Browns.
Last week, Kansas City alarmingly opted to evenly split backfield duties between Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, which resulted in Hunt out-gaining Pacheco by 13 rushing yards.
With Mahomes (ankle) potentially missing Saturday’s showdown with Houston, the Texans will likely load up the box and dare backup Carson Wentz to try to beat them in the passing game. To compound matters, Pacheco draws a tough matchup against a Texans defense that has only surrendered six rushing TDs to opposing RBs all season.
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
at Baltimore; Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Harris has been a solid low-end RB2 this season, ranking as the overall RB21 and averaging 12.5 PPR points per game. He has only topped 53 rushing yards twice since Week 8, though.
In Week 16, he draws a brutal matchup against a Ravens’ defense that is only allowing 63.8 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season. Only two RBs have topped 60 rushing yards. Harris, to be fair, is one of them, notching 63 yards on 18 scoreless carries in Week 11, but expecting a repeat performance is asking for a lot from a player whose usage is trending downward.
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
at Kansas City; Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
From a fantasy perspective, Stroud has offered minimal ROI for someone who was drafted among the top players at the position (QB5 in Sleeper ADP) heading into the season.
Despite throwing multiple TDs twice over his last three games, the overall QB19 draws a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that is only allowing an average of 228.6 passing yards and 1.3 TDs per game to opposing QBs on the season.
Despite seeing his completion percentage vastly improve since star WR Nico Collins returned to the lineup in Week 11, Stroud is a major risk with coveted fantasy hardware only two wins away.
WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
at Miami; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The time for trusting San Francisco’s versatile WR has simply come to end. Samuel has been a massive disappointment, ranking as the overall WR50 in PPR scoring. Over his last six games, it gets worse: he has failed to top 22 receiving yards with zero touchdowns, which has resulted in overall WR68 status.
On Sunday, Samuel draws a tough matchup against a Miami defense that has only surrendered multiple TDs to opposing wideouts in three of 14 games this season.
The once must-start option will struggle to surpass Sleeper’s 9.9 PPR-point projection – a number has failed to eclipse in five consecutive games. If you have the likes of Josh Downs, Adam Thielen or Jalen McMillan on your roster, don’t be afraid to pivot.
WR Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills
vs. New England; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Fantasy managers were downright giddy when the Bills acquired Cooper from Cleveland back in the middle of October. Since joining Buffalo, the veteran is the overall WR70, averaging a dismal 7.6 PPR points per game from Weeks 6-15.
Fresh off a season-high 14 targets in Week 14, Cooper alarmingly played just 46% of the offensive snaps last Sunday, failing to draw a single target in a high-scoring affair with Detroit that yielded 90 combined total points.
In Week 16, Cooper could have a negative game-script going against him as well, as Buffalo is projected to heavily lean on the ground game as a two-touchdown home favorite. With fantasy playoff lives on the line, it is difficult to trust a player who has only surpassed 12 receiving yards in three of six games since landing in Orchard Park.
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