Sleeper Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - NFL Week 13: How to Find an Optimal Lineup

With the Thanksgiving and Black Friday slate now in the books, you are either enjoying a Week 13 lead or facing a deficit and need to make up some ground. No matter which side you are on – for your sake we hope it’s the former – setting the most optimal lineup is vitally important with likely only two weeks left to earn one of the coveted fantasy playoff berths in your league.

 That brings us to this week’s suggested starts (all of whom are being started in 70% or less of Sleeper leagues at time of writing) and sits. Our list kicks off with a rookie running back who is quietly producing RB1-level numbers – and has been doing so rather under the rather since mid-October:

STARTS

RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

at Carolina; Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Irving, who has posted an impressive 101.9 PPR points over his last six games, is now the overall RB21 but is still not being started in 35% of Sleeper leagues.  

The former University of Oregon standout now draws a great matchup against a Carolina defense that has allowed the most rushing yards (1,766) and the second-most rushing touchdowns (17) in the league.

Irving, who is averaging 17 PPR points since Week 6, is a prime candidate to once again post RB1-level production against a porous Panthers front-seven that fantasy managers need to exploit over the final few weeks of the regular season.

RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

at Cincinnati; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

Despite ranking as the overall RB18 in PPR over the last three weeks, Warren is only being started in 24% of Sleeper leagues. The third-year back has emerged as a reliable RB2/flex option due to averaging a solid 45% snap share, which has resulted in his leading the Steelers in rushing in two of the last three games.

In Week 13, he’ll face a Bengals defense that has surrendered an average of 90.4 rushing yards per game and 11 TDs to opposing running backs. 

WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

at New England, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

Pittman has turned increased volume (15 targets) into back-to-back solid efforts after several games of disappointing production. Fellow WR Josh Downs, who leads the Colts in receptions and receiving touchdowns, is expected to miss Sunday’s game against the Patriots with a shoulder injury.

With less competition for targets, Pittman could find ample success against a Patriots secondary that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards (2,844), the sixth-most passing touchdowns (20) and 16 WRs to post double-digit PPR fantasy points.

Pittman is being started in less than half of Sleeper leagues (47%), with managers understandably wary of his penchant for busting – and QB Anthony Richardson’s accuracy issues – but he’s in a favorable spot to make up for lost stats.

QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

at Carolina; Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET 

Fantasy managers continue to sleep on Mayfield, who is only being started in 59% of Sleeper leagues despite being tied as the overall QB4 – and being just 6.5 points shy of QB2.

Last week, he was boosted by the return of WR Mike Evans for the first time since Week 7 and responded by completing a season-high 80% of his passes against the Giants.

Armed with his top receiving threat and an emerging ground attack, Mayfield is primed to crush Sleeper’s projection of QB7 (18.6 points) against a Carolina defense that is surrendering the fourth-most touchdown passes (21) this season. 

QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos 

vs. Cleveland; Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET  

Denver’s rookie continues to play at an elite level, ranking as the overall QB7. To put his production in perspective, Nix enters Week 13 only eight fantasy points behind Buffalo’s Josh Allen, who was the near-consensus No. 1 QB off draft boards this summer. 

Despite all of that, Nix is still only being started in 36% of Sleeper leagues. To cap the week under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, Nix draws a favorable matchup against a Browns defense that has surrendered two TD passes to opposing QBs in five of the last six games.

SITS

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

at New England; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

After averaging 20.1 PPR fantasy points over his first four games of the season, Taylor is just RB31 since Week 9, averaging only 8.4 PPR points in that time. With the fantasy playoffs only two weeks away, Taylor has become a risky start simply because of his lack of involvement in the Colts’ passing game. He has just 22 receiving yards over his last four games. 

In Week 13, he draws what looks like a plus-matchup at first glance against a Patriots defense that has allowed 13 total TDs to opposing RBs. But looking a little deeper, after surrendering at least one rushing touchdown to opposing backs over its first eight games, New England has not allowed any to find paydirt on the ground over the last four games.

If you’re a Taylor owner, it’s unlikely you have a superior option for your lineup, but expectations should be managed.

WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

at Buffalo; Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Drafted as a back-end WR1/top-tier WR2, Samuel has been a big disappointment, ranking as the overall WR42. Case in point: he has posted 6.1 PPR points or less in four of his last seven games.

On Sunday, Samuel draws a tough matchup against a Bills defense that has only surrendered four TDs to opposing wideouts since Week 7. If Brock Purdy (shoulder) is unable to return under center, it will be even harder to trust Samuel with backup QB Brandon Allen piloting the offense again. 

RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

at Minnesota; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET  

Conner is tied for being the overall RB16 but lands in this section for the first time this season. He has been solid, averaging 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game, but he has only rushed for only 41 yards on 19 carries – total – over his last two games.

In Week 13, Conner draws a brutal matchup against a Vikings defense that is allowing the fewest rushing yards (822) and fewest rushing touchdowns (five). 

Arizona’s lead back has been a PPR asset, ranking eighth in receiving yards (288) and 14th in receptions (29) among all RBs. Nevertheless, fantasy owners need to limit optimism, with only three RBs topping 30 receiving yards against the stout Minnesota defense this season.

WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

at Minnesota; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

Arizona’s star rookie wideout was sensational over the first month of the season, averaging 20.6 PPR points over his first four games. Whether it’s hitting the rookie wall or something else, since Week 5, he is merely the PPR WR48, due to his inability to top 7.7 PPR points in five of his last seven games. 

In Week 13, he does draw a favorable matchup with a Vikings defense that is surrendering 14.7 receptions and 188.6 receiving yards per game to opposing receivers. But trusting a TD-dependent WR who has only topped 54 receiving yards once in his last eight games is a risky endeavor.

WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

vs. Seattle; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET  

The Jets offensive woes have knocked Wilson from the ranks of no-doubt WR1 territory. After averaging 94.4 receiving yards in Weeks 5-9, Wilson has only posted 59 yards combined over his last two games. 

Wilson, who is still the overall WR6, has been solid for much of the season, averaging 15.6 PPR points per game. But in Week 13 he draws a tough matchup against a surging Seattle team that shut down San Francisco and Arizona’s passing attacks over the last two weeks. 

It will be tough to sit Wilson, but you shouldn’t expect greatness, as a third consecutive single-digit PPR performance could easily be on the horizon.