NFL DFS Strategy: Best Tips, Mistakes to Avoid and 2 Essential Guidelines

Take it from someone who implemented and operated the only successful Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) program rolled out in a Las Vegas Sportsbook to date: there are two vitally important initial guidelines that every beginner and seasoned veteran of daily fantasy football should take to heart.

1. Set a Budget

One of the biggest misconceptions among DFS players is that investing more means winning more. It simply isn't true. Set a budget and build your bankroll over time. I can’t stress this enough: “Stay Level.” If things are going well, do not increase your investment size. On the flip side, if you are running cold, do not press (or chase). Consistently sticking to your budget will help you weather volatility in the short run and provide valuable data and insights to look back on over the long run.

2. Do. Your. Own. Research.

After creating a first of its kind casino-based DFS gaming program in 2010, I learned that extensive research and analytical data analysis can help with predicting successful lineups. In today’s fantasy landscape, DFS players are saturated with reporting and social media platforms that boast of fantasy expertise. Use their content to help guide you, but do not blindly take their suggestions. Instead, consider analyzing the data yourself, which you can readily access here on the Sleeper app.

With these two essential guidelines out of the way, it's time to get into the nuts and bolts!

How Does NFL DFS Work?

Unlike season-long leagues, Sleeper NFL DFS contests (AKA Daily Drafts) offer fantasy managers the opportunity to create new teams for NFL every week. So if you lose a star player to injury, don’t stress. You can simply build a new roster the following week without having to worry about making a trade to replace the production.

NFL DFS Scoring and Rules

There are a number of DFS websites, but the most prominent in the industry are Sleeper, DraftKings, FanDuel, Underdog and PrizePicks. It's important to understand the rules associated with either tournaments or cash games. While Sleeper leagues require lineups consisting of: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE and 2 FLEX — scoring can often be significantly different. Arguably the biggest scoring difference is whether players will receive either half point (0.5) or a full point (1.0) for every reception. A complete list of Sleeper NFL DFS leagues can be found here!

Daily Preparation

If you want to be successful, it's imperative for fantasy managers to be active each day collecting information ahead of kickoff on Sunday. You should look back at your previous weeks’ results, review player data (snap counts and target share specifically), listen to coach speak and most importantly pay attention to injury reports.

With respect to budget, keeping your budget consistent as mentioned above will help you manage your bankroll when you're reviewing previous week's results.

5 Best Daily Fantasy Football Strategies

You’ll need to beat your competition by implementing strategies that will ultimately lead to outscoring your opponents. Here are five fundamental tips necessary to becoming a successful DFS player:

1. Select the right contest

Before you start, you must decide if you want contests playing against peers or against the house. Next you will have to decide if you would like to enter in Pick'em contests, salary cap games, 50/50s or traditional snake-draft leagues. No matter the decision, choose a format, know the rules and stick to it. The more you play the same contest, the more comfortable you will become, thus leading to financial success.

2. Identify your go-to DFS tools and resources

Researching historical trends coupled with analyzing more recent data is indispensable to landing on the best players. In addition to using the tools afforded to you at Sleeper, review the suggestions offered by industry analysts. As previously alluded, do not simply follow their recommendations, but instead try to find the ones with a track record of success. Pay particular attention to their off-the-radar selections for potential sneaky value.

3. Know how to interpret ownership projections

In conjunction with utilizing the resources available above, it's crucial to pay attention to “ownership projections.” In order to cash in larger DFS tournaments, you need to avoid composing lineups consisting of only highly-selected players. Variance paves the way for winning lineups — be sure to include players not listed at the top of tiers.

4. Understand the risk-reward of roster stacking

One of the most popular strategies in NFL DFS roster construction involves what is known as “stacking.” Selecting a quarterback and his top receiver from an elite passing offense can lead to financial success when they ‘hook up’ for touchdowns. While full team stacks of QB+WR+WR+TE can be highly rewarding, they come with significant risk. If that team's offense underperforms, you'll likely fall below the cash line.

5. Pay attention to Vegas

When it comes to fantasy football, investors are often blinded by their fandom or recency bias of what they just witnessed. One of the best ways to gain an edge on your competition is to pay attention to the experts in the desert. Games with projected high scoring totals are often where you should focus your attention. Trust me, Vegas oddsmakers are more often right, than they are wrong.

One way to assess the likelihood of an NFL offense having a great day is to look at implied team totals, which estimate how many points a team will score based on the point spread and over/under.

5 Common Mistakes to Avoid in Your NFL DFS Strategy

While there are many ways to win, there are certainly pitfalls that can derail your ability to profit playing NFL DFS.

1. Ignoring late breaking news and player updates

As highlighted earlier, paying attention to injury reports during the week is vital. However, even more important is being on top of late-breaking news just prior to kickoff. Unfortunately, the 2024 season has taught many fantasy managers that players can indeed get hurt in warm-ups! (see Evan Engram). The one thing you can never afford is having a player who taking a guaranteed zero in your lineup before the games have started.

2. Neglecting game script predictions

In conjunction with paying attention to the projections being offered in Vegas, it is critical to be cognizant of game script predictions. Arguably the biggest key in winning at DFS is being able to properly understand which players will likely be playing from behind when selecting QBs, WRs and TEs. Why? One word. Volume. Teams in pure pass mode, while trailing in the second half of games, offer higher ceilings to surpass projections and pile up the points.

Being knowledgable about a player's usage is easily the biggest key to NFL DFS success. Touchdown indicators are fun to root for but they are too often volatile. Meanwhile snap count and target share data can often result in formulating accurate projections. Remember, volume is king!

4. Falling in love with name recognition

Far too often fantasy players fall in love with selecting players simply due to name recognition. It’s great to put together a roster of stars, but if that player is drawing a tough defensive matchup you need to pivot. For example, if an elite wideout is expected to draw a shadow of a shutdown corner, consider a different direction. Blindly believing a player is “match-up proof” can lead to fantasy despair.

5. Breaking the 'Golden Rule'

It's always sexy to try and fit in the best players under a contest’s salary cup, but if you have a star RB and an elite WR listed around the same price, don't break the “Golden Rule.”

What exactly is the Golden Rule? When making a close lineup decision the tiebreaker should always be “Touches Over Targets.”

The lean should always go to utilizing a bell-cow RB1 at a flex spot since 20+ ‘touches’ (rushing and passing) will often lead to more production than simply relying on the 7-10 targets a WR1 will receive.

Prudent Preparation = Profits

Similar to a team heading into a big showdown, winning at DFS involves formulating a solid game plan though preparation. The team and free tools offered here at Sleeper can lead to a path that results in a financial windfall!

Avoid the stress of injuries and bye week replacements associated with season-long leagues and simply draft a new team the following week.

Join Sleeper Picks today by signing up via the website or downloading the app and start crushing your opponents in DFS!