How to Draft a Late-Round QB

A winning fantasy football philosophy involves building a roster stocked with productive running back and wide receiver depth. The best draft strategy to achieve that construction often requires passing on the quarterback position until the later rounds. Sure, the lure of having one of the game’s premier signal-callers at the helm of your squad is strong, but it is so vital to accumulate ample skill-position depth with your premium draft capital.

Why? One word: Injuries.

The NFL is a violent league, and injuries are too often an inevitable part of the game, especially to those bearing the brunt of the tackles. Considering how many combined RBs and WRs fantasy managers must start, coupled with navigating bye weeks, you need quantity and quality there. You can’t get by with mediocre backs and wideouts.

That all leads us to the big question as you prepare to draft: Can the late-round QB strategy be a winning one?

What is a Late-Round QB?

The top fantasy QB tier includes Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, with C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson not far behind and joining the established alphas with ADPs inside the top 60 in Sleeper redraft leagues.

A late-round QB, meanwhile, is one who is picked at or around the double-digit rounds and typically possesses an ADP outside of the top 80.

The Two Sides of Opting for Late-Round QBs

Waiting to draft an elite QB can allow you the luxury to use premium draft capital at RB, WR or TE, but it can be a risky blueprint. Allen, Mahomes, Hurts and Jackson are proven commodities who can be vital components of championship squads.

Last season, fantasy managers who employed the late-round QB philosophy were burned by settling for the likes of Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones and Richardson. They played 17 games combined due to injuries.

On the flip side, drafting a superstar QB does not guarantee fantasy success. For example, despite leading the Chiefs to their third Super Bowl title in the last five years, Mahomes did not deliver a solid fantasy ROI on his ADP in 2023, finishing as the overall QB7 despite being one of the top QBs off the board.

2024 Late-Round QB Targets

Once the top QBs are taken, here are the chief targets later on in drafts (along with their Sleeper redraft PPR ADP for helpful context):

Jordan Love, Packers (ADP 80.4 / QB10)
Brock Purdy, 49ers (ADP 90.2 / QB11)
Caleb Williams, Bears (ADP 101.4 / QB12)
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (ADP 104.3 / QB13)
Jared Goff, Lions (ADP 109.9 / QB14)
Jayden Daniels, Commanders (ADP 115.1 / QB15)
Justin Herbert, Chargers (ADP 124 / QB16)
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (ADP 125.7 / QB17)
Aaron Rodgers, Jets (ADP 148.6 / QB18)
Kirk Cousins, Falcons (ADP 157.4 / QB19)
Matthew Stafford, Rams (ADP 162.8 / QB20)

The Mock Draft Test

To game out the strategy, I turned to a Sleeper mock draft (it’s highly encouraged that you do the same if you want to get an idea for how this approach can turn out) and was awarded the fifth pick in a 10-team PPR setup. I opted to invest in stud running backs in the first three rounds: Breece Hall, Derrick Henry and Isiah Pacheco.

Commencing my roster construction with three elite bell-cow backs, allowed me the luxury to immediately turn my focus to wideout. In the fourth and fifth rounds, I wanted to target receivers from high-powered passing offenses. Rams veteran Cooper Kupp and the Eagles’ DeVonta Smith, who rank as Sleeper’s WR20 and WR24, respectively, check all the boxes who can anchor the position.

Next, I snagged Buffalo’s TE Dalton Kincaid, followed by Washington WR Terry McLaurin and Kansas City WR Rashee Rice.

With QB time nearing, I added Pittsburgh RB Jaylen Warren with my ninth pick and sandwiched Tennessee’s Tyjae Spears with two QBs in high-volume passing attacks in rounds 10 and 12.

After nine QBs were drafted in the first nine rounds, Green Bay’s Jordan Love midway through the 10th round represented a player with a tremendous overall ceiling and weekly top-five potential.

While I did consider Dak Prescott, I landed on Sleeper’s projected QB10 due to the abundance of riches in the Packers’ passing game: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks. In his first season taking over for Rodgers, Love finished as fantasy QB5 after throwing for the seventh-most passing yards (4,159) and second-most passing touchdowns (32). In his second full season piloting Matt LaFleur’s offense, the trajectory is pointing up to eclipse that impressive production.

Prior to my pick in the 11th round, four QBs I was considering as my backup – Prescott, Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels – all came off the board. And after seeing Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa chosen at the end of the 11th, the choice for me in the 12th was crystal clear: Sleeper’s QB14, Jared Goff.

He finished second in passing yards (4,575) and fourth in touchdowns (30) last season, guiding the Lions to the fifth-highest scoring offense (461 points). Thanks to possessing an elite wideout in Amon-Ra St. Brown, an emerging WR talent in Jameson Williams as well as arguably the best TE in Sam LaPorta, last year’s fantasy QB8 owns Sleeper’s fourth-highest passing yard projection (4,207) and the sixth-highest passing touchdowns total (29) for 2024.

Can You Win With Late-Round QBs?

Back to the main question. I would still lean toward securing one of the elite QBs in the middle rounds if you have the opportunity, but employing the late-round QB strategy can be a winning one in 2024, considering the depth at the position.

Prescott, Love, Purdy, Goff, Tagovailoa, Daniels or Trevor Lawrence all offer significant value in the later rounds and could easily outperform their ADP, allowing you to use premium capital elsewhere — and, if it works out, get the best of both worlds.

Kurt Benkert’s Top 5 Fantasy Picks

Kurt Benkert is a 5-year NFL QB and the host of Pocket Presence, a Sleeper original production.

These are the top 5 guys Kurt refuses to leave his fantasy drafts without this season:

Buccaneers RB Rachaad White at 37.0 overall ADP
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin at 68.0 overall ADP - “Looks GREAT right now and has a QB that will distribute and create more 1 on 1 opportunities.”
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray at 70.0 overall ADP - “Could end the year as fantasy QB1 overall, expecting a big jump.”
Jaguars TE Evan Engram at 71.0 overall ADP - “Gets the targets of a WR1 and is a massive red zone guy for Lawrence.”
Jayden Daniels at 112.0 overall ADP - “He is THE diamond in the rough at this value, the best athlete on the field and doesn’t take much for him to reach top-10 fantasy QB value”

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