Fantasy Football Boom or Bust - 2024 NFL Week 7: Resist the Temptation of Big Name Players

With six weeks of data now in hand, it’s vital that you don’t simply start players based upon name recognition or how high you drafted them. As we continue to stress, the sole intent of this segment of the Sleeper Newsletter is to highlight which players are primed to either boom or bust in the week ahead due to expected game scripts, coach-speak or injuries. 

Need an example as to why you should value coach-speak when determining lineup decisions? Read here. While some roles on teams are now in flux, our suggestions here are intended to highlight the necessity of drilling down and making sense of the landscape each week.

And as managers turn their focus to roster additions needed for a playoff run, here are our suggested boom/bust plays for Week 7 – starting with two players who quietly rank among the top 24 wide receivers in PPR formats. So raise your hot cup of coffee or energy drink of choice before the early kickoff in London and read on as you finalize your lineups:

BOOMS

WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons

vs. Seattle; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

The data aligns for fantasy managers to employ Mooney in their starting lineups in Week 7 with supreme confidence. Mooney, who is only starting in 51% of Sleeper leagues, quietly ranks as the overall WR19 in PPR formats. The fifth-year pro, who has posted over 14.5 PPR performances in three of his last five games, has thrived in first season in Atlanta. 

In Week 7, Mooney draws a favorable matchup against a Seahawks defense that has allowed 510 receiving yards and five touchdowns over the last three games to Lions, Giants and 49ers wide receivers. Expect Sleeper’s WR36 to soar beyond his 11.5 PPR-point projection in a game that could wind up as the highest-scoring game on the slate.

WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

at Minnesota; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

Williams, who was only selected in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts this summer, has delivered reliable WR2 production. The third-year wideout is emerging as one of the best big-play threats in the NFL, ranking ninth among all wideouts with an impressive 22.8 yards per reception.  

Sleeper’s projected WR31 (12.1 PPR points) is only being started in 62% of leagues and draws a matchup with a Vikings defense that has allowed 10 opposing wideouts to post double-digit PPR production in five games.

The overall WR24, who has posted 14.4 PPR points or more in four of five games, should be considered a major boom candidate in another expected high-scoring affair.

RB Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

at Indianapolis; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Playing for the first time since Week 1, Mostert (chest) ran for 80 yards while hauling in two receptions for 18 yards in Week 5 against New England. Even if De'Von Achane (concussion) is able to feature, Mostert should still see enough work to produce in a favorable matchup with a porous Indianapolis run defense.

The Colts are allowing an average of 157.3 total yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs. In fact, Indianapolis has allowed four (Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Tank Bigsby and Tony Pollard) to score at least 15 PPR points.

Sleeper’s expected RB31 is primed to outperform his 9.1 PPR-point projection in a matchup that will likely feature Miami relying heavily upon the ground game as QB Tua Tagovailoa misses his fourth straight game. 

BUSTS

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

vs. San Francisco; Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The three-time Super Bowl MVP was listed among our busts in Week 5, and despite throwing for a season-high 331 yards, he failed to throw a touchdown in the Chiefs’ 26-13 win over the Saints. On the season, he has as many interceptions (six) as TD passes through five games and has thrown at least one pick each week.

Despite the added rest of the Chiefs’ Week 6 bye, it is clear that Kansas City’s offense is simply not elite as it plays without Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice. In Week 7, Mahomes will face a tough matchup in a Super Bowl rematch against a 49ers defense that has allowed a middle-of-the-pack eight passing TDs through six games.  

Mahomes, who shockingly sits as the overall QB22, could even struggle to surpass Sleeper’s QB13 (16.9 points) projection. If you have Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold or Kirk Cousins on your bench, don’t be afraid to make the move, however counterintuitive it may seem.

WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

at Indianapolis; Sunday, 1 p.m. ET 

Sometimes the data can be misleading. Despite owning an impressive 75.6% snap percentage and a 17.9% target share, Waddle has fallen all the way down to the overall WR59 in PPR. In three games without Tagovailoa under center, Waddle has only averaged 36 yards and has not scored. In fact, he has not scored in 11 of his last 12 regular-season games dating back to last season. 

Despite a plus-matchup against a Colts defense that is surrendering the fifth-most passing yards (1,497), trusting Waddle is simply too risky. With rumors of a Tagovailoa return coming soon, fantasy managers should let Waddle ride the bench for at least one more game.

QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

vs. LA Chargers; Monday, 9 p.m. ET 

Murray quietly ranks as the overall QB9, accounting for nine total touchdowns (eight passing, one rushing) in six games. However, Murray now faces the prospect of being without star rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who suffered a concussion in the first half of the team’s lopsided Week 6 loss at Green Bay. 

In Week 7, Murray draws a tough matchup against a Chargers secondary that has surrendered the fourth-fewest passing yards (1,047). In fact, the Bolts have only allowed two opposing QBs to surpass 14 fantasy points (Justin Fields, Bo Nix). 

A deeper dive reveals that Murray will have to amass significant production on the ground in order to reach his season average (17.6 points), since the dual-threat signal-caller has only thrown for multiple scores in three of his last 14 regular season games dating back to last season.

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