Win Your Fantasy League With These Contrarian Picks

Fantasy football leagues are usually won because two or three players vastly exceed their statistical expectations. In order to presciently dig some of them up for you, we’re taking a contrarian approach, singling out potential league-winning players, some of whom have already been labeled as damaged goods by much of the fantasy community.

Don’t be fooled by the masses, though. We’ll lay out the upside case for a player at each offensive fantasy position (QB, RB, WR, TE), helping you understand why the risk will yield the desired reward this season.

Alvin Kamara can be a fantasy RB1 (again)

Background

Last year, Kamara was the RB3 in PPR fantasy points per game. No running back had more receptions or receiving yards per game. However, Kamara ranked just 27th in rushing yards per game and his six total touchdowns were only 24th among running backs. Essentially, Kamara was an elite fantasy asset in 2023 because of his pass-game role.

2024 Outlook

Currently, Kamara’s Sleeper ADP is 48 for PPR formats, and he goes off the board as the RB16. Fantasy managers are understandably worried about his age (29) and his career-low 694 rushing yards from last season. Saints All-Pro offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk was also ruled out for the upcoming season due to knee surgery.

Yet there are several factors working in Kamara’s favor. The running back room still offers minimal competition, as Jamaal Williams struggled in his first year as a Saint, while Kendre Miller is injured once again.

Additionally, the injury on the O-line might actually help Kamara in fantasy as a checkdown option for Derek Carr when he’s under pressure. The receiving corps is thin (again) after Chris Olave, which also should lead to high receiving volume for Kamara when the other pass-catchers struggle to get open.

Draft Advice

The only real concerns with Kamara are his age and that Taysom Hill still looms as a potential TD vulture, but his 2024 situation looks awfully similar to the set of factors that led to a great per-game points average.

Kamara looks like a true fantasy RB1 who can be drafted in the fourth round. Fantasy managers can draft two early WRs, along with a top QB or TE, and sleep easy knowing Kamara can still be snagged after that in most draft rooms.

Kyle Pitts (actually) has fantasy TE1 overall upside

Background

Pitts caught 68 passes for 1,026 yards in 2021, becoming the first rookie tight end to reach 1,000 yards in the modern era. Since then, he’s mustered just 1,023 receiving yards over the next two seasons combined.

Pitts’ struggles are a mixture of his own injuries and the Falcons attempting the second-fewest passes in the NFL since 2022. Drake London also joined the Falcons in ‘22, and he’s led the team in receiving yardage both seasons since.

2024 Outlook

After back-to-back seasons outside the top 15 in fantasy points per game, Pitts’ TE7 price tag (Sleeper ADP 55.3) makes him one of the most polarizing players in all of fantasy football. Almost every high-volume fantasy football enthusiast has now been burned by Pitts once, if not twice.

Even so, London has narrowly out-targeted Pitts 168-149 in the 27 games where they have overlapped the last two seasons. It’s close enough where a fully healthy Pitts has a slight chance to lead this remade Falcons offense in targets.

Draft Advice

Last season, George Kittle was the only tight end to reach 1,000 receiving yards. We’ve already seen Pitts hit that mark before, and the Falcons now project to be one of the NFL’s highest scoring teams.

If Pitts can top 1,000 yards again while chipping in seven or eight TDs, he’s very much in play to finish as fantasy football’s TE1. Draft Pitts in Round 5, in the same tier as Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid and Kittle.

Caleb Williams can score 20 fantasy points per game

Background

Williams is a top-tier QB prospect out of USC who was selected by the Bears with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. His game reminds many scouts of Patrick Mahomes due to his elusiveness, strong arm and ability to create plays outside the pocket.

Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore in ‘22, with 4,537 passing yards, 42 touchdowns and just five interceptions. His mobility was also on display during his three-year college career with 27 rushing touchdowns.

2024 Outlook

Williams is the current QB12 on Sleeper, going at an ADP of 101.4 in PPR formats. Rookie QBs often struggle in fantasy, and the Bears’ track record is among the NFL’s worst at the position. They are still the only franchise to never produce a 4,000-yard passer in a single season.

Despite those concerns, Williams will be playing with an ideal supporting cast for a rookie signal-caller. He gets the pleasure of throwing to wide receivers D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and fellow stud rookie Rome Odunze, operating behind what should be a competent offensive line.

There is a real chance we see Williams throw for 4,400 yards and 25 touchdowns, given the tools at his disposal. On the ground, 400 rushing yards and four touchdowns is within reach, too. For context, that’s assuming Williams is lesser Jared Goff as a passer, yet slightly more mobile than Trevor Lawrence. That feasible combination brings Williams to 20 fantasy points per game, which would have been the fantasy QB5 in 2023.

Draft Advice

For drafters that want to wait on QB and fill out the rest of their roster first, Williams is an excellent later-round option. He’s available in Round 9 or 10 of most draft rooms, but anxious fantasy managers have permission to select him in Round 8 if needed.

Christian Watson still has fantasy WR1 upside

Background

Watson spent the first couple months of his rookie season earning Aaron Rodgers’ trust. From Week 10 onward of 2022, Watson was the Packers’ starting outside receiver, and he was the fantasy WR8 per game during that span.

Last year, Watson’s ADP rose to 61 in PPR leagues on Sleeper, though it was still unclear how Jordan Love would fare as a new NFL starting QB. Love exceeded all expectations and finished seventh in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns. Watson struggled with injuries throughout ‘23, and he topped 40 receiving yards in only three games.

2024 Outlook

The average fantasy drafter is frustrated with Watson’s injury woes and has anointed Jayden Reed as the team’s presumptive WR1. Watson’s current Sleeper ADP is 103.8 as the 46th receiver off the board.

Because he only played in eight full games last year, his stats need to be analyzed across a smaller sample. That eight-game slice saw Watson earn 49 targets, 20% more than anyone else on the team. There’s a real possibility this sample size is too small and Watson will play second fiddle to Reed in the passing game.

However, there’s also a serious possibility the speedy Watson emerges as the Packers’ WR1, catching passes from one of the NFL’s most productive QBs. This is the recipe for a top-12 fantasy season at the position.

Draft Advice

Watson’s ADP allows you to draft him as a bench receiver in Round 9, as a low-risk, high-reward option.

Final Thoughts

Winning your fantasy league requires risk-taking and hitting big on several of your picks. Think outside the box during your drafts on Sleeper, and trust your instincts when you can easily envision a player’s fantasy upside case.

Now, it’s time to share your own contrarian picks or search for more draft advice on Sleeper. Which of these four players did we change your mind on? Let us know on X, Instagram or Reddit.

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